MANILA, Philippines – The weather bureau warned the public to prepare for rain and winds from Tropical Depression Kristine, which continued to move over the Philippine Sea on Monday morning, October 21.

In a press briefing before noontime on Monday, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said Kristine was located 870 kilometers east of Eastern Visayas as of 10 am.

The tropical depression is still moving west southwest at a relatively fast 30 kilometers per hour (km/h).

It could make landfall in Northern Luzon by Friday, October 25 — possibly in the province of Cagayan — but PAGASA is not ruling out changes in Kristine’s projected path. For instance, it may shift downward, more toward Central Luzon.

As of Monday morning, Kristine continued to have maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. But it is likely to strengthen into a tropical storm on Monday; a severe tropical storm by Wednesday, October 23; and a typhoon by Thursday evening, October 24, or Friday morning, October 25.

“Ngayon pa lang po ay pinapayuhan na po natin ang ating mga kababayan na maghanda. Sundin ang lahat ng mga hakbang na pinaiiral ng kanilang mga lokal na pamahalaan,” said PAGASA Administrator Nathaniel Servando during the press briefing.

(As early as now, we’re advising our fellow Filipinos to prepare. Follow all measures being implemented by your local government units.)

“Binabantayan natin kung saan tatama ang sentro, but huwag natin kaligtaan na ang bagyo ay malawak ang kanyang sirkulasyon…. Kabuuan ng bagyo ang ating titingnan, hindi lang ‘yung sentro nito,” Servando later added.

(We’re monitoring where it will make landfall, but let’s not forget that the tropical cyclone has a wide circulation. We have to look at the entirety of the tropical cyclone’s circulation, not just its center.)

PAGASA’s rainfall forecast as of 11 am on Monday shows the following areas will be affected:

Monday noon, October 21, to Tuesday noon, October 22

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Northern Samar
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Quezon, rest of Bicol, Eastern Visayas

Tuesday noon, October 22, to Wednesday noon, October 23

• Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur
• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): rest of Bicol, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan Valley, rest of Eastern Visayas, Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, Aurora

Wednesday noon, October 23, to Thursday noon, October 24

• Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon
• Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Region

On Monday, the trough or extension of the tropical depression will also trigger scattered rain and thunderstorms in Metro Manila, Mimaropa, the rest of Calabarzon, the rest of the Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Basilan, Sulu, and Tawi-Tawi.

The rest of the country may have isolated rain showers or thunderstorms on Monday, too, because of Kristine’s trough.

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Meanwhile, more areas were placed under Signal No. 1 as of 11 am, which means they will have strong winds from Kristine:

• Catanduanes
• Masbate including Ticao Island and Burias Island
• Camarines Sur
• Albay
• Sorsogon
• Camarines Norte
• eastern part of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Buenavista, San Narciso, San Andres)
• Eastern Samar
• Northern Samar
• Samar
• Leyte
• Biliran
• Southern Leyte
• Dinagat Islands
• Surigao del Norte including Siargao-Bucas Grande Group

The highest tropical cyclone wind signal due to Kristine could be Signal No. 4.

PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the tropical depression and the northeasterly windflow may bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas:

Monday, October 21

• Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, southern part of Palawan, Siquijor, Bohol, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental

Tuesday, October 22

• Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Palawan, Romblon, Aklan, Antique, Negros Island Region, northern part of Cebu, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental

Wednesday, October 23

• Mimaropa, Visayas, Mindanao

For coastal waters in the next 24 hours, moderate to rough seas are expected in the seaboards of Isabela, Aurora, Polillo Islands, Catanduanes, and Northern Samar, as well as eastern seaboards of mainland Cagayan, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur (waves up to 4.5 meters high); seaboard of Batanes, remaining seaboard of Cagayan, eastern seaboard of Quezon, remaining eastern seaboard of Bicol, and eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar (waves up to 4 meters high); and seaboards of the Ilocos Region, seaboard of Dinagat Islands, and seaboard of the Davao Region (waves up to 3 meters high). Small vessels should not venture out to sea.

PAGASA also said up to moderate seas (waves up to 2 meters high) will be seen in the remaining seaboards of the country within 24 hours. Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible.

Kristine is the country’s 11th tropical cyclone for 2024. It is also the first tropical cyclone to have either entered or formed within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in October.

It may exit PAR on Saturday, October 26. – Rappler.com