Kamil Krzaczynski/AFP; Rebecca Noble via Getty Images
In just over two weeks, Election Day 2024 will be here — a final cap to a wild, at times unprecedented presidential fight that remains extremely close.
The story of the 2024 race is that amid the chaos — President Joe Biden dropping out of the race, Vice President Kamala Harris' emergence, and two assassination attempts on former President Donald Trump's life — control of the White House still hinges on a coin-flip.
As pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson pointed out, there has been little movement in national polling since Labor Day, the traditional starting date of the final pre-Election Day slog.
Without a second presidential debate between Trump and Harris, there are also no major planned events left that could presumably shake up the race. All that remains are the unexpected "October surprises."
The good news for Trump is that he has gained ground since his widely panned debate performance against Harris. The RealClearPolitics national average has narrowed by roughly 0.5 percentage points in the past week. Noted election forecaster Nate Silver's model now shows Trump with an slight lead in what continues to remain a toss-up race. According to FiveThirtyEight's state averages, Trump has narrowed Harris' lead in the three so-called Blue Wall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Harris called Trump out on Friday for being "exhausted," referencing a string of interviews he has reportedly walked away from.
"Well, if you are exhausted on the campaign trail, it raises real questions about whether you are fit for the toughest job in the world," Harris said in Michigan, referencing a Politico report that Trump begged out of an interview due to "exhaustion."
In response, Trump said she's a "loser" who "doesn't have the energy of a rabbit."
Instead of more traditional interviews, the former president has hit the podcast circuit hard. His team is focusing on young men, and it appears to be working. According to The New York Times, Trump leads Harris among young men "58 percent to 37 percent, across the last three Times/Siena national polls." In contrast, Harris is driving an even larger gender gap among young women.
In an era of close elections, 2024 is entering the home stretch with the potential to be one of the closest on record.
Amid the final push, both campaigns are turning to a mix of their top surrogates. Like Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton before her, Harris has virtually every major Democrat at her beck and call. She's set to stump with both Obamas separately in Georgia and Michigan, respectively. In recent days, Harris has also appeared alongside former "Shark Tank" star Mark Cuban. Former Congresswoman Liz Cheney and other top Republicans will also continue to push Harris' theme of democracy and attack the former president for his refusal to accept his 2020 loss.
Harris' team has teased bigger guests. They have touted a Get Out the Vote concert in pop star Charli XCX's signature "Brat Green." Democrats often turn to musicians and celebrities to make the final push. Obama ended his reelection with an Election Eve rally in Des Moines, Iowa, accompanied by a Bruce Springsteen performance. Clinton called on the Boss and Bon Jovi to campaign with her at her final 2016 rally in Philadelphia. The pandemic muted the 2020 race, but there's little doubt about big spectacles this time.
Trump is getting an early start with a rally in New York City's Madison Square Garden. He's never had as deep of a bench or as glitzy of guests as the Democrats. It's still news when his wife, former first lady Melania Trump, joins him — as she did for Thursday night's Al Smith dinner.
The former president's entire appeal is predicated on breaking with traditional US politics. It's why few, if any, GOP standard-bearers ever campaign with him. His actions leading up to and during the January 6, 2021, Capitol riot have also further eroded relationships, namely with his former running mate, Mike Pence, who has said Trump endangered his family. On Friday, "Fox & Friends" cohosts practically begged Trump to campaign with former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley.
Instead, Trump has extolled other prominent supporters like Tesla CEO Elon Musk. The world's richest man has donated roughly $75 million to a pro-Trump super PAC he founded. Musk also joined Trump for a recent rally and is now hosting his own series of events.
With those numbers in mind, there's a clear picture of how each candidate can win.
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Harris' easiest path remains what was once Biden's Hail Mary strategy before he dropped out of the race: sweep the Great Lakes states and complete the Blue Wall with Nebraska's blue dot. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania have voted for the same presidential candidate since 1992. But in a razor-close election, there's always the possibility that one could fall out.
Most models predict that if Trump wins Pennsylvania again, he will be the next president. If he punches a hole elsewhere, Harris could repair the damage by picking up a state like North Carolina — though the Tar Heel state has only voted for a Democratic presidential nominee once this century (Obama's 2008 victory). There's also the possibility of Georgia, a state that Biden won by just 11,779 votes in 2020.
The good news for the vice president comes from Nebraska. Like Maine, Nebraska awards some of its Electoral College votes by congressional district. In the overwhelmingly conservative state, there's a swing district, the Omaha-based Nebraska 2nd. Obama narrowly won it in 2008. Nebraska Republicans then successfully pushed to gerrymander the seat. Amid a broader demographic realignment, Biden easily won the district in 2020. Trump's best plan for Warren Buffett's backyard was a last-minute change to the state law. But it didn't work. It means there is still a possibility that Harris wins the presidency 270 to 268, avoiding the possibility of just the second tie in the nation's history.
Trump's team once dreamed of flipping Minnesota, New Hampshire, and perhaps even New Mexico in a rout of Biden. Since Harris' rise, they have tried to hang on to North Carolina. It's quite possible Trump could flip Georgia and Arizona, seizing on his increased standing among Black and Latino men. But barring a major surprise, Trump's best path remains to find a way to flip at least one Great Lakes state.
