The next time some asshole says something stupid about betting markets and politics, like "More accurate than polls, because real money is on the line" it's worth reminding them that as with any market prices can be manipulated. And that's apparently the case with Peter Thiel's Polymarket recently. Just four accounts have flooded the market with $30mil in bets recently, distorting or inflating Trump's chances against Kamala Harris.
Unlike with stock exchanges, there are no safeguards against price manipulation. It's all buyer beware, wild west stuff.
Crypto Bros getting played again.
Source: Wall Street Journal
Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are neck and neck in the polls. But in one popular betting market, the odds have skewed heavily in Trump’s favor, raising questions about a recent flurry of wagers and who is behind them.
Over the past two weeks, the chances of a Trump victory in the November election have surged on Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market. Its bettors were giving Trump a 62% chance of winning on Thursday, while Harris’s chances were 38%. The candidates were in a dead heat at the start of October.
