Oscar odds update: Edward Berger (‘Conclave’) returns to Best Director lineup

The topsy-turvy Best Director race at the 2025 Oscars just got more interesting. Edward Berger (“Conclave”), who was predicted to receive a nomination back in the summer before getting knocked out of the category’s Top 5, has now returned to the Best Director lineup. Note that Gold Derby’s Oscar odds will continue to change as our Experts, Editors and Users keep making or updating their predictions.

The Focus Features drama stars Ralph Fiennes as Thomas Lawrence, a Cardinal who is tasked with overseeing the election of the late Pope’s successor. But he soon realizes that many of the candidates have personal scandals that could upend the church. Other cast members include Stanley Tucci as Cardinal Bellini, John Lithgow as Cardinal Tremblay, Sergio Castellitto as Cardinal Tedesco and Isabella Rossellini as Sister Agnes.

Berger received an Academy Award nomination for writing “All Quiet on the Western Front” (2022), the German war film that won four total Oscars: international feature, cinematography, music and production design. The West German-born Austrian and Swiss filmmaker is now hoping “Conclave” will bring him his first bid as a director.

When Gold Derby opened the predictions center in July, Berger appeared in our Top 5 for Best Director alongside Steve McQueen (“Blitz”), Sean Baker (“Anora”), Denis Villeneuve (“Dune: Part Two”) and Greg Kwedar (“Sing Sing”). Berger later fell out of that lineup, but he’s now back, back, back again.

The current Best Director rankings are as follows: Baker at 4/1 odds to win, Brady Corbet (“The Brutalist”) at 5/1 odds, Jacques Audiard (“Emilia Perez”) at 11/2 odds, Villeneuve at 8/1 odds, and Berger at 9/1 odds.

Out of Gold Derby’s 27 Oscar Experts from major media outlets, the following 14 have Berger in their personal rankings: Brian Truitt (USA Today), Debra Birnbaum (Gold Derby), Erik Davis (Fandango), Joey Nolfi (Entertainment Weekly), Joyce Eng (Gold Derby), Kevin Polowy (CBR), Mark Johnson (The Contending), Michael Musto (Queerty), Perri Nemiroff (Collider), Peter Travers (ABC), Ray Richmond (Gold Derby), Susan King (Gold Derby), Tariq Khan (Gold Derby) and Thelma Adams (Gold Derby).

As for our 12 staff Editors, eight of us believe Berger will reap a nom at the 97th Academy Awards: Charles Bright, Chris Beachum, Debra Birnbaum, Denton Davidson, Joyce Eng, Marcus James Dixon, Ray Richmond and Rob Licuria.

Finally, eight out of our Top 24 Users, who did the best predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, are backing a bid for Berger: Aleksandr Syman, Gabriel Ritter, helmetz, hotsizzle10, joshswatchlist, kamila, lady_bird and tolisgkoufas.

Have YOU made your Oscar predictions yet? It’s fun and easy — get started right now! The nominations will be announced on January 17, 2025 and the awards ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, March 2 on ABC.

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