Talking through some issues with Vogt’s decisions in the ALCS
This has been a sensational season for Guardians’ rookie manager, Stephen Vogt. But, with the team in a rare window to make a World Series, some questions have arisen about the decisions the former catcher is making.
In the following article, I want to examine some adjustments Vogt could make in the upcoming three-game stretch to help better position the Guardians for success. I want to begin by acknowledging that Vogt knows way more about baseball than I do, and he is aware of inside information about the team and its players to which I do not have access. I also want to make clear that I think he is a great manager and I’m so happy the Cleveland front office hired him to manage my favorite baseball team; I hope he’s here for decades to come. I also want to emphasize that I’m not arrogant enough to think he is actually reading (or paying any heed to) this article.
With those caveats aside, let’s take a look at a few areas where further investment might pay high dividends (shout out Dr. Terry Wardle formerly of Ashland Seminary who taught me this excellent phrase):
1. Tweak the Bullpenning
I think Vogt has been incredible at managing a beleagured pitching staff this season. For the most part, I think he’s also done a remarkable job at adjusting to the new reality of playoff bullpenning as his starting pitchers have, for the most part, underperformed. With that said, Vogt made an interesting choice in game two that I think points to some potential need for adjustment. After Eli Morgan handled the 3-4-5 hitters in the Yankee order in the fifth, Vogt went to lefty Erik Sabrowski for the sixth. Now, I don’t have an issue with Sabrowski; I also don’t have an issue with Vogt’s remarkable trust in his less experienced rookie arms (see: Cantillo in game one). The Guardians are not going to win this series if these arms don’t perform well.
I completely get why Vogt wanted Sabrowski to face Jazz Chisholm and Anthony Rizzo. Chisholm hits changeups very well (5 runs above average against them for his career) and his career wRC+ against RHP is 40(!) points higher than it is against LHP. Anthony Rizzo has hit changeups well in his career (31 runs above average, but is 2 runs below average against them for this season) and has big splits 128/117 RHP/LHP for his career, 92/62 RHP/LHP this season). Alex Verdugo also hits RHP better, but only has an 84 wRC+ against them this season, and is about league average against changeups. Verdugo is just not a good hitter However, Volpe is very poor against changeups (6 runs below average) and has a career 78 wRC+ against RHP.
On paper, it made sense to go to Sabrowski. But, if the Guardians’ continue to get abbreviated outings from their starters, they will have to get LENGTH from their multi-inning middle relievers in Pedro Avila and Morgan. Game two featured a total of nine pitches from Avila and Morgan. That forces you to pitch Sabrowski on back-to-back days, something he was not asked to do even ONCE in the regular season. I think this factor is a bigger deal than the advantages Sabtrowski provides, on paper, in the scenario outlined above.
If the Guardians don’t get multiple innings from either Avila or Morgan (or both, if the starter can’t make it through TWO) when their starters can’t make it through the fourth inning, they aren’t going to win those games. Of course, if the starters can’t at least get Cleveland through four, they are very unlikely to win this series, anyway, as we have seen. But, Vogt really has no control over that. He needs to be willing to let Morgan and Avila provide what they’ve done all year, even against a Yankee lineup that hits right-handed pitching well. As a whole, the Yankees have struggled against changeups this season, and both Pedro and Eli have excellent changeups; let’s ride them out.
Finally, it’s probably a mistake to not have Emmanuel Clase pitch in one of these first two games. He’s your best relief pitcher. If you have a chance to win a game, you can’t Buck Showalter him. I think the spot for Clase was game two where Hunter Gaddis was put in, top of the seventh against the top of the lineup. Gaddis is great, don’t get me wrong. But, that’s where you put your BEST pitcher in and say, “Get me through Judge,” and figure out the rest of the game from there.
I understand “There’s something different about the ninth.” I get that. I also get that Clase probably would have come into the game in the eighth had Gaddis got the Yankees out and kept things close. But, there’s one way to guarantee your best arm faces their best bats and gives you your best chance to stay in the game when that chance may not be guaranteed otherwise - it’s to put him in at the top of that seventh inning. That’s a needed adjustment Vogt should make if the situation arises again in this series.
2. Ride the Rickety Bo Naylor Train Until it Falls off the Tracks
I realize that everyone, EVERYONE, is frustrated with Bo Naylor. As a Committed Bo Naylor Apologist, I am also frustrated with him. But, folks, we cannot forget that since Opening Day of 2020, Austin Hedge has a 36 wRC+. If you are in the mood to be scared since it’s Halloween season and you venture into Austin Hedges’ splits, you will be shocked and appalled by basically every query you seach except for ONE positive stat: since 2020, Hedges has a 104 wRC+ in high leverage situations. My clear and simple advice for Stephen Vogt is: DO NOT BELIEVE IN THIS STAT.
Austin Hedges should only enter these games if the team has a lead and it’s the seventh inning or later. I admired and appreciated the “Risk Big, Win Big” philosophy of batting David Fry for Bo Naylor in game two in the fourth inning with the bases loaded to try to get back in the game. It just can’t happen anymore; we tried it and we saw the results. Austin Hedges looking like he was transported from a baseball team in 1878 to 2024 and asked to face Clay Holmes. While Clay Holmes certainly sounds like a Reconstruction Era baseball name, his stuff would make any hitter from that era look like a toddler in the box. And, we cannot afford to have a toddler taking meaningful at-bats with the outcome still in doubt.
It’s not Vogt’s fault that Bo has struggled so mightily at the plate to begin and end the season. Vogt didn’t sign Hedges to a contract or injure David Fry’s elbow. But, for as much as Bo Naylor has been bad, Austin Hedge remains the WORST hitter in major league baseball. We have to continue to hope Bo finds it/runs into one/has an angel descend and guide his bat to the ball because Austin Hedges’ batting is “Abandon All Hope Ye Who Enter Here” territory.
3. Ride the “Hot” Hand in Right Field
Another problem that Vogt has that is not his fault is his right-fielders inability to hit a baseball. After putting up some good at-bats in the Detroit series, Jhonkensy Noel is chasing everything. Will Brennan is chasing even more than everything; he’s chasing infinityathing. David Fry can’t throw the ball and Kyle Manzardo can’t move, so they aren’t playing right-field.
Look, I am the foremost doubter of Daniel Schneemann as a longterm major league baseball player. But, Schneemann put up an actual at-bat in game one of the ALCS and saw some pitches. He also didn’t look like he’d never tried to pick up a baseball in the outfield like Will Brennan did in game two. He’s all we have right now. I think Schneemann needs to get a start in game three. Either that or we go back to relying on the potential that Jhonk gets lucky and runs into one. All we have for right-field right now is a hope and a prayer. Pick one. Just please, no more Will Brennan starts. But, hey, if either one of these three shows ANY signs of life after entering a game, just ride whichever one of them that is to the bitter end. Play our best players as much as possible.
4. Don’t Throw Aaron Judge Pitches Where He Can Extend
I’m not sure how much say, if any, Vogt has over pitching game plans, but Gaddis throwing a 98 mph heater up and over the plate against Judge can’t happen again. Make him beat you inside and see if he’ll chase. Once he does, adjust. But, don’t let him extend the head of the bat on a pitch in the zone.
5. Balance “There is No Tomorrow” with “We Want to Win a Pennant not Just a Game”
The Guardians need to win A game. They need to win A game in order for this to become a series. So, I think game three should be a “pull out all the stops to get one win” experience. After that, the focus should be back to trying to somehow manage to give yourself enough ammo (in arms and player usage) to win the series.
Everyone can see that the odds are not in the Guardians’ favor. Their bad starting pitching - a problem ALL year long - has not subsided as an issue. Their inability to win baseball games if Jose Ramirez or Josh Naylor are not performing isn’t mitigated by Brayan Rocchio becoming a second version of playoff Steven Kwan. But, if Matthew Boyd can turn things around for the starters, if Jose Ramirez’s ninth inning home run and Josh Naylor’s couple hits from game two are signs of things to come, then maybe, MAYBE, Vogt can push some buttons to give this team hope they can turn the tables and put pressure on the Yankees.
I know this isn’t a bad baseball team; they are here in the ALCS for a reason. Let’s hope the manager and the players can show why they are World Series competitors over the next three days.
