Butler Preview, 2024-25

State of the Program

2024 was a significant improvement for Thad Matta and Butler. After some writers picked them to finish last in the league, they instead improved their kenpom ranking by 58 spots over the previous year and flirted with the bubble into February. Their improvement included wins over tournament teams Boise State, Texas Tech, Creighton, and Marquette. The offseason was a mixed bag as they saw starting guards Posh Alexander and DJ Davis both leave via transfer while starting big Jalen Thomas graduated. They brought in Kolby King from Tulane and Jamie Kaiser from Maryland to bolster the back court while Patrick McCaffrey from Iowa gives them some front court depth. Butler also managed to get Jahmyl Telfort back from the NBA Draft pool while Finley Bizjack entered the transfer portal but elected to return, setting the Bulldogs up for the Trilly Donovan adage "sometimes the best get is the one that's already on your roster." There are certainly reasons for optimism as Thad Matta enters year three.

Rotation

Kolby King is back in the Big East; he started his career at St. John's before a year at Tulane. He will likely start for Matta, though it's unclear if he'll be on or off the ball. He is a savvy player who knows how to get to his spots and is highly efficient from beyond the arc (36.6%) and at the rim (67.0%). One concern is that King was much worse against Tier A&B competition according to kenpom (80.6 ORtg) so he needs to prove he doesn't just feast on garbage opponents. Finley Bizjack was extremely erratic last year. In 26 games of 10+ minutes, he had 7 games of 138+ ORtg, 15 games of 87 or worse, and just 4 in between those poles. He is the other contender to start at the point. Pierre Brooks was Butler's leading scorer, finding the consistency that eluded him for two years at Michigan State. Brooks was excellent from beyond the arc and an integral part of the offense as Butler was 12.2 points/100 possessions better with him on the floor. Jahmyl Telfort posted a career best offensive rating after transferring in from Northeastern, but did so in an unspectacular way. He's a poor shooter at the rim (53.3%) and beyond the arc (30.8%) but rarely turned it over and rarely makes mistakes. He plays a bit of an old man game, not really standing out, but always being fairly solid. Andre Screen was excellent in limited minutes, likely only playing as little as he did because Jalen Thomas was the team's most efficient player and the two never played together (not a single possession). He's a high efficiency rebounder that lives around the rim. Depth should be another strength for this team, as Moore and Kaiser both have high-major rotation experience, McCaffrey is a veteran of numerous NCAA teams, and Kapke is another rebounding space-eater with the added benefit of being able to stretch the floor.

Style of Play

Offensively, Matta largely flipped the script last year. His team played more up-tempo, excelling at getting to the rim or kicking out off a drive. When they managed to complete those plays, they did well, but settled far too often for mid-range shots. That should be mitigated by the departure of Jalen Thomas, who was top-30 in mid-range attempt rate. Beyond the arc, Butler is great at creating catch-and-shoot situations. They rarely (2.6 attempts/100 possessions) pull up for jumpers from three, instead using either drive and kick or pick and pop actions. Butler got assists on 91.6% of their three-point attempts. The departure of Alexander and Davis, Butler's top two turnover creators, could lead to a slower offense, but expect them still to run heavy on driving actions that are more likely to finish at the rim or result in open threes. Matta likes to run multiple shooters around a big and this roster fits that well, and don't be surprised to see some five-out from this Butler offense if they swing McCaffrey or Kapke to the middle.

On the defensive end, Matta's teams rarely foul. Both of his Butler teams have been top-10 in defensive free throw rate. The problem with that lack of physicality is they let teams get to the rim too often, ranking 224th in rim attempt rate and 228th in FG% at the rim. When you let teams get to the rim often and convert when they get there, it's no surprise their defense ranked 9th in the Big East, ahead of only Georgetown and DePaul. His best defenses have been man-to-man, ball-pressure defenses that are aggressive without fouling. The problem is even with Alexander and Davis, Butler ranked #250 in defensive turnover rate. It seems unlikely their replacements will perform better in that regard. That leaves the question of what Butler's defensive identity will be. They want to pressure the ball but don't have the quick hands to do that. They don't have the lateral quickness to keep teams away from the rim and don't have the shot-blockers to serve as enforcers when drivers get through. It's possible that Matta simply doesn't have the level of talent he needs to execute the defense he wants to run.

2024-25 Outlook 

Davis and Thomas are big losses, but it's entirely possible the departure of Posh Alexander is addition by subtraction. He's not a great offensive player and on defense his desire to pursue steals comes at the expense of holding defensive position. There's no true point guard on the roster, but King, Bizjack, and Telfort are all capable of creating for others and Brooks is a legitimate all-Big East contender. Their non-con has winnable opportunities (SMU, Northwestern, UNLV/Mississippi St, Wisconsin) with only one game that can be chalked up as a loss today (at Houston). This won't be a great offensive or defensive team, but they have experience both on and off the court. Matta seems to have this team pointed in the right direction and while they won't likely compete for a Big East title, they could be scrappy enough to get back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018.

One Man's Opinion

I picked Butler last a year ago and won't be making that mistake again. I'm putting them at #6 in the Big East. This is a team with bubble potential and I think it's more likely than not they realize that. It will come down primarily to Matta, but he had last year's team in the mix for a bid into mid-February before their late collapse. Posh Alexander's departure is addition by subtraction. Losing DJ Davis' offense and floor-spacing hurts, but I think Matta can get King, Kaiser, and McCaffrey to offset that loss. This won't be an exciting team, and they'll probably win some games ugly, but Thad is building them back to respectability.