IS Jon Rahm about to endure another dose of the big event misery that has blighted Europe’s top players this year?
Not many people would regard this week’s Andalucia Masters as a ‘big’ event. But Rahm and the other 15 Spanish players competing on home soil certainly would.
Rahm, a double Major champion and winner of the LIV individual title at the first attempt after signing a near-£500million deal to join the rebels, is a class above any of the rivals he faces at Sotogrande.
But the same thing could be said when the former world No 1 teed it up at the Spanish Open three weeks ago. Yet Rahm was sensationally beaten in a play-off by little-known countryman Angel Hidalgo.
In a year when American players have won all four Majors, and Rory McIlroy has suffered from a recurring bout of highly painful second-itis, Rahm could easily continue the trend.
And at around 3-1, he is practically unbackable anyway.
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I can still see the trophy finishing up in Spanish hands, and the player who stands out as a cracking each way bet is 25-1 shot David Puig.
Puig was in the final group when Hidalgo shocked Rahm in Madrid – eventually finishing third – and he followed up with a share of fourth at the Dunhill Links Championship a couple of weeks ago.
Puig has not set the world alight since joining LIV a couple of years ago as one of the game’s most exciting amateurs. But he is still only 22, and a win and a runner-up finish on the Asian Tour earlier this year showed the talent is definitely there.
His last two efforts have underlined that fact. And he will not be intimidated by Rahmbo after getting a close up view of the big man failing to close the deal in Madrid.
Another Spaniard who has to be on the short list is 2022 Andalucia Masters champion Adrian Otaegui.
That victory came at Valderrama rather than Sotogrande – but he was the halfway leader here as defending champion 12 months ago before finishing a highly respectable ninth. So he can play this course too.
Otaegui is already a winner this year, in China, back in May. His form since has been steady rather than spectacular, but at 70-1 he should certainly give us a good run for our money.
Denmark’s Jeff Winther is another 70-1 shot. After finishing sixth here last year, and joint runner-up in France a week ago, those odds look pretty attractive.
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The PGA Tour is still caught up in a state of post-FedEx Cup limbo, with most of the top stars putting their feet up and counting the money they have piled up this year.
Just like the Spanish event, the market for the Shiners Children’s Open is dominated by a player who looks head and shoulders above the opposition, two-time defending champion Tom King
He is a clear 12-1 favourite, with the next best in the market at roughly double those odds. But despite another feisty President’s Cup performance a few weeks ago, Kim has been nowhere near as impressive in 2024 as he was a year ago.
That President’s Cup outing was also his only start in the last nine weeks after the Korrean youngster made a mess of things in the FedEx after finishing 50th at the St Jude play-off. So he can be taken on here.
Matt McCarty was flagged up here a couple of weeks ago as a Korn Ferry graduate who could make an immediate impact as a PGA Tour rookie – and he promptly came good with a three shot victory at last week’s Sandersons Farm Championship.
But following up a maiden win is notoriously difficult. So I like the chances of the man he pushed into second, Stephan Jaeger.
The German star, who sensationally beat Scottie Scheffler at the Texas Open in March, has been threatening another win for a while. So he looks decent value at 33-1.
Harris English produced his best performance this year when he was sixth last week. He could be worth following at 40-1, and Nick Hardy makes most appeal of the outsiders at around 80-1.
And YET ANOTHER MENTION for 33-1 shot Eric Cole!
He was third here last year, after finishing T35 at the Sandersons. He improved into a share of 16th at the Sanderson’s this time, so he has to fancy his chances of doing better this week here as well.
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