Oscar odds update: Ralph Fiennes (‘Conclave’) now predicted to win Best Actor

A crucial change in Gold Derby’s Oscar odds for Best Actor now has Ralph Fiennes saying, “Amen.” The “Conclave” star has officially broken his tie with Colman Domingo (“Sing Sing”) at the upcoming 2025 Oscars. Fiennes now has leading 4/1 odds to win the trophy, compared to Domingo’s second-place odds of 9/2. It goes without saying that it’s still quite early in this awards season, and things will undoubtedly keep changing as our Experts, Editors and Users continue to update their predictions.

Fiennes plays Cardinal Thomas Lawrence in the Focus Features mystery-thriller from director Edward Berger. Following the death of the Pope, Lawrence is tasked with overseeing the election of the successor, but he soon realizes many of the candidates have personal scandals that could upend the church. Fellow cast members include Stanley Tucci as Cardinal Bellini, John Lithgow as Cardinal Tremblay, Sergio Castellitto as Cardinal Tedesco and Isabella Rossellini as Sister Agnes.

The 61-year-old English actor is a two-time Oscar nominee for “Schindler’s List” (supporting, 1993) and “The English Patient” (lead, 1996), but he has yet to win. Fiennes did prevail at the BAFTA Awards for “Schindler’s List,” and he is also a multi nominee at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice and Screen Actors Guild Awards.

Following Fiennes and Domingo in our Best Actor Oscar predictions are likely co-nominees Adrien Brody (“The Brutalist”) at 9/2 odds, Timothee Chalamet (“A Complete Unknown”) at 6/1 odds and Daniel Craig (“Queer”) at 10/1 odds. The Top 10 is rounded out by Sebastian Stan (“The Apprentice”), John David Washington (“The Piano Lesson”), Paul Mescal (“Gladiator II”), Joaquin Phoenix (“Joker: Folie à Deux”) and Sebastian Stan (“A Different Man”).

Out of Gold Derby’s 28 Oscar Experts from major media outlets, the following seven have Fiennes in their #1 positions: Anne Thompson (Indiewire), Clayton Davis (Variety), Keith Simanton (IMDb), Kevin Polowy (CBR), Perri Nemiroff (Collider), Susan King (Gold Derby) and Thelma Adams (Gold Derby).

As for our 12 website staff Editors, two of us believe Fiennes will prevail at the 97th Academy Awards: Charles Bright and Rob Licuria.

Finally, four out of our Top 24 Users, who did the best predicting last year’s Oscar nominations, are backing Fiennes: Brayer88, Jordo9497, kamila and swnana.

Have YOU made your Oscar predictions yet? It’s fun and easy — get started right now! The nominations will be announced on January 17, 2025 and the awards ceremony is scheduled for Sunday, March 2 on ABC.

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