With Vice President Kamala Harris holding a consistent but slim lead in the polling aggregates, it’s now—and has been—a turnout battle.
As I’ve noted repeatedly, pollsters are pretty good at determining what various demographics think, but as to turnout, they have to make an educated guess based on historical trends and other data. There’s a big difference if 17% of voters under 30 turn out, or 25%. And no one can know what that number will ultimately look like.
But given Harris’ persistent leads, however narrow, and Democratic performance in recent cycles, we have the numbers. If we turn out, we’ll win. It’s weird that anyone thinks that Democrats may underperform—we won’t—but that’s the GOP’s best hope: that our low-performing voter groups stay home.
But if the (very) early vote is any indication, that’s not happening.
