What would it take for the Guardians to make the World Series?
The Cleveland Guardians will try to beat the Yankees in a playoff series for the first time since they did it in the 2007 ALCS. What has to happen for them be successful?
After dispatching the Detroit Tigers in a close, hard-fought series, the Guardians now take on a team that is - on paper - much better than the Tigers, and the Guardians, in both starting pitching and hitting. Oh, and the Yankees pen was sensational against the Royals in winning the ALCS. Can this team with a payroll half the size of the Yankees' number find a way to slay the Gotham Giant?
Here are three keys for the Guardians to win their fourth pennant in the past 30 years:
1. Get Length from the Starters and Get Depth from the Pen.
The Guardians got 26 of the 44 innings their pitchers threw in the ALDS from the Cleveland bullpen. This isn’t sustainable in a seven-game series, so they will need to get more length from their starters, Tanner Bibee, Alex Cobb, Matthew Boyd and either Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo or Ben Lively will need to get closer to five (or GASP! even SIX) innings in most of their respective starts. It’s also important that Manager Stephen Vogt remember that just as significant as the third-time-through-the-order-penalty for starting pitchers may be the reliever familiarity effect. Namely, seeing the same arms multiple times in a short amount of time as chronicled last year by Ben Lindbergh of the Ringer may be just as detrimental as seeing the same pitcher three times in the same game. Lindbergh and FanGraphs’ editor Meg Rowley both recently discussed this effect on their podcast Effectively Wild, mentioning that one of the researchers of Lindbergh’s piece now works for the Guardians.
So, the organization should be aware of the need to maximize reliever efficacy by leveraging the looks the Yankees get at them. I am hoping that the Guardians will let their second tier of arms including Eli Morgan, Erik Sabrowski, Andrew Walters, perhaps Pedro Avila, and whichever of the Lively, Williams and Cantillo group ends up in the pen contribute and keep the big horses - Hunter Gaddis, Cade Smith, Tim Herrin and Emmanuel Clase - from having to go multiple innings or even appear in every game. This was one of the best bullpens in baseball for a reason - it’s time to trust the full strength of this unit and live or die with it.
Incidentally, I would start the rookie lefty Cantillo against the Bronx Bombers in game four at home in Cleveland. During the season, the Yankees had the tenth best wRC+ against LHP at 107 wRC+ but the BEST wRC+ against RHP at 120. They are a good hitting team but throwing a lefty is likely the best way to keep them off-balance. They also have struggled against changeups more than any other pitch (20th in baseball in pitch value against them) so Cantillo’s excellent offspeed should play up.
2. Lefty Guardians Hitters Need to Show Up.
The Yankees are a right-handed pitching heavy team. Three of their four starters - Gerrit Cole, Clarke Schmidt and Luis Gil - are right-handed and their most trusted bullpen arms - Luke Weaver, Tommy Kahnle and Clay Holmes - are all righties. The Guardians were 20th in MLB in wRC+ against RHP at 95 (100 wRC+ is league average). From Lane Thomas to David Fry, their biggest moments against the Tigers in the ALDS were from their lefty mashers. Even switch-hitting Jose Ramirez has been much better against left-handers this season.
To win the ALCS, the Guardians will need not only to get Ramirez going but also to get contributions from left-handed hitters like Josh Naylor, rookie Kyle Manzardo, Andres Gimenez, Bo Naylor and Will Brennan. Lefty Steven Kwan and switch-hitter Brayan Rocchio had an amazing series against the Tigers, and the Guardians will need that to continue to match the Yankees’ expected offensive output. But, they’ll also likely need at least one of that group of Naylors, Manzardo, Gimenez and Brennan to emerge as a reliable source of production to have a shot at taking this series.
3. Don't Let Aaron Judge and Juan Soto Beat You.
If you exclude production from center-field and right-field in 2024, the Yankees’ offense ranks 19th in MLB at 97 wRC+. Don’t get me wrong, the Yankees have professional hitters all over their lineup, including playoff Giancarlo “Babe Ruth” Stanton, who are all capable of swinging a game. The Royals just proved this by losing to the Yankees despite Judge’s OPS in the series hanging around .650 and Soto’s hanging around .750. But, a team’s best shot at beating this team is keeping Soto and Judge as in check as possible.
If Stanton, Alex Verdugo or Gleyber Torres beat you as you make your best pitches, you tip your cap. If Soto and Judge beat you because you failed to adequately plan for them or failed to just put them on base rather than let them get a pitch to hit, then that’s a failure in game-planning. Judge and Soto are both future hall-of-famers, so there’s no guarantee that any amount of game-planning will be foolproof, but everyone should be abundantly clear that limiting their influence on this series is absolutely crucial.
In summary, Guardians fans are thrilled to see their team in the Championship Series, and some may feel like they are playing with house money at this point. But, it’s clear the team feels they have unfinished business against the Yankees after losing the ALDS to New York after going up 2 games to 1, and they are hungry to put an end to the organization’s 76 year title drought. If Cleveland wants to find a way to defeat the Evil Empire, as Cleveland fans like to call them, they’ll need to repeatedly utilize their full pitching depth, get their left-handed hitters to show up, and keep Judge and Soto as in check as possible.
