Whenever a team collapses the way the Phillies did in 2024 — with such high expectations and a season’s worth of anticipation crushed over a relatively uncompetitive four-game span by a superior division rival — and when it looked a lot like the collapse did last year, there is demand for change. Something needs to give.
Kevin Long might find himself as the unfortunate starting point.
The Phillies’ last two Octobers have come to a crashing halt in much the same fashion: the bullpen hits a wall and, primarily, the offense chases its way to an early offseason. The scouting report on the Phillies has been simple: Don’t give them much of anything to hit. They’ll get themselves out.
Well, the Mets knew the scouting report, and when MLB pitchers are told not to throw strikes, they’re pretty good at obliging. It happened for all of Game 1. It happened for the first half of Game 2, the second half of Game 3, all of Game 4.
But it was not an NLDS-exclusive problem for the Phillies, even in 2024. On May 24, when the Phillies woke up at 37-14 and magically turned into a barely-mediocre team for the rest of the season, per their 59-56 remaining record, they ranked first, fifth and fourth, respectively, in runs, slugging and wRC+.
From that point on, they ranked 12th in runs, seventh in slugging and ninth in wRC+.
They saw fewer fastballs and more offspeed, and they couldn’t adjust. Just 48.7% of pitches they saw were in the strike zone, which ranked second-lowest in MLB this year. Their 30.3% chase rate was sixth-highest, and three of the teams ahead them were the White Sox, Marlins and Rockies — all either dreadful or historically dreadful. Yet despite that weakness, they were too passive on pitches in the strike zone, swinging at a 68.6% clip that ranked only 12th.
The Phillies are a largely veteran team, and some of the biggest culprits for the chase woes were some of those veterans: Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, even Nick Castellanos, despite his overall solid season. But the Phillies’ younger position players also did not take the step forward this year that many had hoped they would. Alec Bohm was again inconsistent, his All-Star nod was largely carried by a spectacular April and he hit 15 homers in 143 games. Bryson Stott’s average plummeted 35 points from last year to .245, his OPS dropped 76 points to .671 and he struggled against lefties in a way he did not last season. Brandon Marsh did not become an everyday player because he did not hit lefties at all — and even his number against righties tailed off in the latter half of the season.
Those three, the Daycare, the youngest of whom will turn 27 in December, went 4-for-37 with one extra-base hit in the NLDS.
In short: The younger players did not improve, and the veterans’ approaches — save for Kyle Schwarber and sometimes Bryce Harper — were often maddening.
It should be noted that the Phillies are expected to be suitors for Juan Soto this winter, and Soto has a strong relationship with Long from their time together with the Washington Nationals. By all means, signing Soto — a slugging corner outfielder who hits everyone and does not chase — should be priority No. 1. If that means keeping Long, it means keeping Long.
But assuming Soto simply takes the highest offer, regardless of hitting coach, and that offer comes from some borough of New York, perhaps Long’s time in Philadelphia will be up.
Change is coming to the Phillies, and it’s not clear how or to whom that change will happen. An obvious place to start could very well be the hitting coach, who might not be fully at fault for the offense’s shortcomings but certainly isn’t excused from them either — and thus might have to fall on one of a few swords.
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