I have spoken with three Democratic operatives behind the scenes who all believe the race is slipping away from Vice President Kamala Harris. They offer four major reasons why this is happening.
The first is Harris herself. She is simply not a very good candidate. She lacks confidence and is seemingly terrified to take any unrehearsed or unvetted policy questions. This liability is not a surprise to those who follow politics closely, but is a new concern for a number of voters.
This unsteadiness and insecurity were initially on display when she was the first candidate to embarrassingly flame out of the 2020 presidential primary. Now, in a deja vu moment of clarity, voters, major donors and Democratic power brokers are being reminded of those same failings in 2024.
The second reason Harris is slipping is the Biden-Harris administration's record. It is weighing her down, dragging her down.
Harris made this problem significantly worse while doing an interview this week on ABC’s “The View.” Even though the purpose of this puff interview was to make her look good, Harris fumbled the hand-off. Harris-supporting host Sunny Hostin asked: “Would you have done anything differently than President Biden during the past four years?”
Harris immediately veered off the rails: “There is not a thing that comes to mind,” Harris responded. “Not a thing.”
The screams of shock and disappointment from the Harris campaign, the mainstream media and Democratic elites after hearing that reply should have set off seismometers all over the D.C. area.
Not surprisingly, Team Trump has been playing that answer on a loop. They are beyond thrilled that Harris just spot-welded herself for the rest of the campaign to the Biden administration's failures.
Third, we come to the same issue that ultimately ended the presidential campaign of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis: It’s virtually impossible to run against a “cult of personality,” which is what Trump has going for him.
Like it or not, admit it or not, Trump has that elusive “It" factor. You can’t buy it, create it or fake it. You either have it or you don’t. This won him the presidency in 2016; saw him come within a whisker of winning in 2020, while setting the all-time popular vote tally for a sitting president; and now it has more and more voters believing he will win a substantial victory next month.
Harris — like DeSantis in the GOP primary — is marching straight into the teeth of that “cult of personality” campaign that started the race with tens of millions of votes in the bank.
Finally, we have the issue that the Democratic operatives I spoke with believe is the most devastating for Harris: the old “Are you better off now than you were four years ago?” question. The problem for Harris is that potentially millions of Americans within the Democrats’ core constituencies not only believe they were better off four years ago, but think that they and their families are being crushed now by the Biden-Harris policies and failures.
Under that scenario, what is a pragmatic, realistic Democrat with some ability to move the needle to do? For some, it is to prepare for the Harris loss, regroup and start vetting the Democratic presidential field of 2028.
Those I have spoken to also fear that Harris and the party in general have veered too far to the left, to appease the far-left wing within the party. They fear this is not only contributing to the predicted Harris loss but hurting Democratic candidates across the board.
If next month goes as I believe it will, come 2028, Vice President JD Vance will be the leading candidate for the GOP nomination. Will former Gov. Ron DeSantis challenge him? Possibly. But those I speak with believe the Republican bench is deep and powerful no matter the nominee.
They believe that the Democrats will have to pick a more centrist candidate in 2028 if they hope to compete for the White House. However, to make that a reality, they will also have to find the courage and strength to stand up against the very vocal and very active far-left wing of their party.
Much of this will come sharply into focus just over three weeks from now.
Douglas MacKinnon is a former White House and Pentagon official.
