Survey of small businesses finds slight optimism, but also a lot of uncertainty

Small businesses turned a bit more optimistic in September, according to the latest survey from the National Federation of Independent Business. 

NFIB’s sentiment index rose 0.3 points to 91.5, though that’s still well below the historic average of 98 for that index. The poll focuses heavily on small-business owners in construction, manufacturing, agriculture and retail.

NFIB’s optimism index soared to well above its 50-year average in 2016, after Donald Trump’s election. Then, if fell sharply after inflation spiked in 2022.

Inflation was still the biggest concern last month, according to Holly Wade, executive director of the NFIB’s Research Center.

However, “more small-business owners were anticipating higher sales, and that was a good sign moving into the holiday season,” she said.

With interest rates now falling, sentiment is also improving in construction, per Robert Dietz, chief economist at the National Association of Home Builders. 

“Builders are looking down the road expecting improving sales conditions,” he said.

Meanwhile, small business uncertainty is the highest NFIB’s ever recorded, Wade noted.

“There’s no shortage of uncertainty — whether it’s the election, and especially tax provisions that are expiring at the end of 2025,” she said, which includes a 20% tax deduction for pass-through businesses enacted in 2017.