Early this week, Republican nominee Donald Trump pulled ahead of his Democratic opponent Kamala Harris on a leading prediction website projecting both candidates’ odds of winning next month’s presidential election.
As of Tuesday morning, Trump was the slight favorite on Polymarket, which gave him a 52.6% chance of returning to the White House – six points higher than the 46.7% chance the site gave Harris.
At times on Monday, Polymarket showed Trump having as much as an 8.6% lead over Harris – his biggest advantage on the site since early August.
Before Monday, Harris was considered by the site’s odds to be the slight favorite to win the election since September 12 – two days after the sole debate between her and Trump.
Also on Tuesday morning, Polymarket showed that Trump is favored to win just enough battleground states to give him a slight majority in the electoral college.
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The site then showed Trump as the strong favorite to win the states of Arizona (67%), Georgia (64%), and North Carolina (60%).
Per Polymarket, Trump is also favored by a 55%-45% spread to win the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania – which a chorus of analysts consider the state most likely to decide the election’s outcome.
If Trump wins just these four battleground states plus every red state he will win 281 electoral votes, 11 more than the threshold required to win the election.
For reference, Trump won the 2016 election with 304 electoral votes, despite losing the popular vote by two percentage points.
Although Polymarket as of Tuesday morning showed Harris with a slight advantage in Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin, Trump is well within striking distance in all three of these states as well.
According to the site, Harris has a 53% chance of winning each, compared to Trump’s 47% chance.
However, even if Trump failed to win Michigan, Nevada, and Wisconsin next month, he would still almost certainly win the presidency with Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania in his column.
Political commentator Collin Rugg noted on X (formerly Twitter) Monday that the former president’s “surge” in Polymarket’s odds “happened almost immediately after Trump held his Butler, PA, rally with Elon Musk.”
Rugg argued that Trump’s retaking of the betting lead was due to a “rush of positive developments” directly linked to his chances of winning the state of Pennsylvania in particular.
“New Democracy Institute poll shows Trump leading by 4 points in PA,” Rugg pointed out:
– Musk’s America PAC announces they are offering $47 for every registered voter you refer in a swing state that signs his petition.
– Scott Presler announces that 18,603 voters in Bucks County PA alone have shifted to Republican in the last four years.
– Pennsylvania voter registration surges for Republicans, with an increase of 60k Republicans registered from September compared to Democrats with an increase of just 35k.
Presler is a Republican Party activist who is well known on social media for his work on the ground registering voters over the past few years.
Also on Monday, women’s sports advocate Riley Gaines hypothesized that the widely panned response to Hurricane Helene by Biden-Harris’ Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) “may have been the final straw for Kamala Harris.”
The day after Biden-Harris Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro Mayorkas said that FEMA “does not have the funds to make it through the [hurricane] season,” reports circulated that the agency allocated over a billion dollars of taxpayer money to a program directly benefiting migrants since the start of Fiscal Year 2023.
“Turns out the American people want a president who isn’t America last,” Gaines wrote on X.
Polymarket brands itself as “the world’s largest prediction market.” Via one of its web pages, it states that its markets “seek truth” and “reflect accurate, unbiased, real-time probabilities for events that matter most to you.”
“Research shows prediction markets are often more accurate than polls and pundits,” the Polymarket web page continues:
Traders aggregate news, polls, and expert opinions, making informed trades. Their economic incentives ensure market prices adjust to reflect true odds as more knowledgeable participants join.
This makes prediction markets the best source of real-time event probabilities. People use Polymarket for the most accurate odds, gaining the ability to make informed decisions about the future.
LifeNews Note: Anthony Iafrate writes for CatholicVote, where this column originally appeared.
The post Donald Trump Now Given Best Odds to Win Presidential Race appeared first on LifeNews.com.
