It continues to be a bold move, Cotton.
Twice in the past I suggested that the then-Indians use openers during the playoffs given the state of its starting rotation.
It never quite came to pass. Now, the Guardians face an opponent using this strategy out of necessity. A key goal in order to beat a team using Openers is to score early and often, ensuring that the opposition uses as many pitchers as possible. During the season this limits bullpen options for the remainder of the series.
The impact of this is mitigated by extra rest days in the playoffs, but it is still important for the Follower to devour innings quietly if an Opener is eviscerated.
While yesterday’s game was an excellent win I do have some unfortunate news to share very screenshot.
72 of Reese Olson’s pitches yesterday were pretty great. The other was a middle-middle slider that Lane Thomas professionally bonked for three runs. Olson’s first pitch of the game.
He then recorded the next fifteen outs while allowing two hits and a walk.
Given today’s extra rest day the impact of dragging an extra two or three relievers onto the mound yesterday may not have impacted Monday much. The odds of any lingering fatigue remaining until game three on Wednesday would have been more remote.
While the strategy did not work particularly well for game one it is going to be interesting to see how it plays out. The Tigers send American League pitching Triple Crown winner Tarik Skubal to the mound next.
I see it this way: if the Guardians beat Skubal on Monday the series is theirs to lose. With a Skubal win, the series is leveled but Detroit’s ability to deploy its “Chaos Ball” is still diminished due to the remaining schedule.
Wednesday - Thursday - Saturday is a much different set of games to manage as compared to Saturday - Monday - Wednesday. We are rolling Wednesday into both sets here but managers need to think this way when considering which bullpen arms might be available when. Say that Tarik Skubal tosses a perfect game on Monday. Every bullpen arm rolls into Wednesday’s game on full rest.
Suddenly, this game becomes a lot more critical for the Guardians. Simply winning is the most important part of a series but forcing Detroit’s bullpen to labor through a game whittles away at their strategy. A pitcher used on Wednesday and Thursday is not very likely to be available should game five on Saturday, Oct. 12th be necessary. Should a pitcher used on those days go anyway they aren’t likely to have their best stuff. Probably.
All of this is food for thought rather than any kind of prediction, suggestion, complaint, bizarrely uncalled-for screed, etc. It is neat to see this strategy deployed in real life. My thought is that yes, this does give them their best chance to beat the Guardians in a five-game series.
However, I’m not sure I ever realized how much pressure this situation puts on the Ace. I’ve thoroughly enjoyed Tarik Skubal’s season from afar and look forward to watching him on Monday, but damn if that isn’t the biggest start of his life. There is also no other pitcher in the American League I’d rather start in that spot.
It could still be one hell of a series.
