NEW YORK (PIX11) -- New exclusive PIX11 polling with Emerson College and The Hill reveals two incredibly close races and even a ballot controversy just four weeks from election day.
Incumbent Republican Congressman Mike Lawler has a razor-thin lead over former Democratic Congressman Mondaire Jones in New York's 17th Congressional District 45%-44%.
Working Families Party candidate Anthony Frascone appears to be sapping support from Jones. The Jones campaign has claimed in court Frascone, a former Republican, was a phony candidate Republicans recruited to spoil his chances in this close race.
The head of the Working Families Party has disowned Frascone, who does not appear to have a campaign page or be active on social media.
Meanwhile, in the 18th District incumbent Democratic Congressman Pat Ryan has a five-point lead in our poll over retired NYPD deputy inspector Alison Esposito-- the Republican.
The poll shows Ryan has 48% support and Esposito with 43%. However, 10% are still undecided-- the race is very much unsettled.
PIX11 will host a debate between Ryan and Esposito on Wednesday at 7 p.m.
In New York 18, the economy is by far the most important issue according to 39% of those surveyed. Housing affordability is second at 16%. Immigration is third at 14%.
Of most voters of NY-18, 45% said their financial situation was worse off than one year ago. Still, overall a combined majority of 54% said they were doing the same or better.
Aside from the economy, Esposito has really focused a lot on immigration. 53% of the district said New York has a migrant crisis. 35% said migrants were a problem but not a crisis. 13% said there was no problem.
Ryan has talked quite a bit about abortion rights. The majority of the district, 57% said the federal government should enshrine the rights that used to be guaranteed by Roe vs. Wade.
43% say let states decide.
In NY-17 the data on the economy and immigration were similar. 32% of voters in that district said the economy was the top issue. 20% said immigration. 13% named housing affordability as the top issue. 44% of those in the district said they were worse off than one year ago, 38% said they were doing about the same, and 18% felt they were better off.
Methodology:
The Emerson College Polling/Pix11/The Hill 17th and 18th district surveys were conducted October 1-3, 2024. The sample of NY 17th district likely voters is n=630. The sample of NY 18th district likely voters is n=630. The polls have a credibility interval, similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE), of +/- 3.8 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by gender, education, race, age, and party affiliation based on 2024 likely voter modeling. Turnout modeling per state is based on U.S. Census parameters, exit polling, and voter registration data.
