An unlikely state is spelling trouble for Republicans up and down the ballot this election cycle.
Polling by the Independent Center conducted this week shows independent Senate candidate Dan Osborn with a five-point lead over Republican incumbent Deb Fischer, with Osborn receiving 47 percent of the vote to Fischer’s 42 percent. Ten percent of voters say they are unsure. Other polls show Fischer with a slight lead, but independent and undecided voters will be a key group for this Senate race. As of this week, Nebraska is the second-closest Senate race in the country, according to 538.
With a thin 51–49 Democratic majority in the Senate today, Osborn could be the key for making sure Republicans don’t take control of the chamber. There is no Democratic candidate running in the Nebraska Senate race, but Osborn’s policies make it likely he’ll caucus with the party.
Osborn has made headlines for his working-class messaging, union leadership, and independent candidacy. “I hadn’t been a very political person until corporate greed came knocking on my door a few years ago, when I was president of my local union, and we went out on strike, at a time where the company was making record profits,” he told Semafor in September. As the president of his local union at the Kellogg’s plant, in 2021 he led 500 workers on strike for nearly three months to end a two-tiered benefits system and stop plant closings.
Nebraska, and the most populous city of Omaha, will be integral to securing victory for Democrats in the Senate, Congress, and White House. Nebraska is one of only two states that splits its electoral votes by congressional district (the other being Maine). One of Nebraska’s five electoral votes belongs to the blue dot of Omaha. Biden won Nebraska’s 2nd district in 2020, while Trump clinched the vote in 2016. (The Democratic House candidate for the district is also leading in the polls.)
The same poll that showed Osborn winning also showed Trump leading Kamala Harris by 11 points in the state, but Harris leads Trump in the Omaha-based district by nine points. Republicans, including Trump, are well aware of the importance of this one electoral vote. That’s why MAGA sought to change the state to a winner-take-all system this election cycle. That effort was thwarted by Nebraska Republicans in September.
