JERUSALEM – Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Wednesday, “Iran made a big mistake attacking us… and they will pay for it,” following Tehran’s decision to fire some 180 ballistic missiles at the Jewish state Tuesday evening.
The attack marks the second time in five-and-a-half months that the Islamic Republic has attempted to directly strike at Israel. On the first occasion, U.S. President Joe Biden infamously told Israel to “take the win” after almost all of the projectiles either failed to launch or were knocked out of the sky. Second time around, there are significant differences, which enter into the equation.
In April, Biden was planning to run for re-election, and could at least pretend he was somewhat in control of his administration. Following his defenestration in favor of his Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee, and his apparent removal from any decision-making process, it’s not at all clear what leverage he can bring to bear over Israel’s leaders, particularly Netanyahu. Where once Biden may have been able to call on a personal relationship with Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, his administration’s actions – and its seemingly clear preference of acting for the benefit of Iran, at the expense of the Jewish state, is a hurdle which may prove too steep to overcome.
BREAKING:
Axios reports that a White House official has said that the U.S. has intelligence suggesting the Islamic Regime in Iran is preparing to launch a ballistic missile attack against Israel soon. pic.twitter.com/SLgjPzHiAf
— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) October 1, 2024
Furthermore, the balance of power has shifted in the region in the last two weeks or so, and it is exactly this change, particularly Israel’s dismantlement of much of Hezbollah’s command structure, including the elimination of its leader, Hassan Nasrallah, in an ingenious and deadly aerial bombing attack, which prompted Iran’s action.
Prior to the attack, when the U.S. SIGNIT said it had picked up indications Iran was preparing to strike – which IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari initially denied – a White House official who spoke on the condition of anonymity said there would be “severe consequences.” The scale and scope of those “consequences” was not expounded upon, and predicting what it might be is somewhat opaque, considering how much succor has been lavished upon the Islamic Republic.
What are the options?
The last time Israel fended off an Iranian ballistic missile attack, it responded in a quiet, even understated way, but one which left the Iranians and even the Americans in no doubt as to what its capabilities were. The current mood in the country makes it feel like this will not be anywhere near enough if Israel were to repeat the trick.
So, how might it respond to this latest act of wanton Iranian aggression? The jewel in Iran’s crown – so to speak – is its nuclear program, which Israel specifically – because of the mullahs’ stated aim of “wiping it from the map” – has attempted to delay and derail for the best part of 20 years. It is nearing completion and the time for doing anything about it grows ever shorter. Could the retaliation for a ballistic missile attack from Iran be the provocation for taking out Iran’s nuclear program?
Other possible targets which have been floated include potential assassinations of high-ranking Iranians, as well as the country’s oil infrastructure. It is worth bearing in mind how much revenue the Islamic Republic has been able to attain from selling this commodity to Russia and China, in particular.
The attack itself
At around 8 p.m. local time Tuesday, millions of Israelis received a message on their cell phones warning them of extreme, imminent danger. They were directed to get to shelters as soon as possible and told to wait until the all clear was received. A few moments later, the first of several incoming rocket alert sirens blared throughout the country, as Iran unleashed its missiles.
Wow. What appears to be rare evidence of an exoatmospheric interception by Israel’s missile defense system against Iranian ballistic missiles earlier this evening. pic.twitter.com/Lcr6g4YmdB
— Joe Truzman (@JoeTruzman) October 1, 2024
On the eve of the vice presidential debate between Sen. J.D. Vance, R-Ohio, and Gov. Tim Walz, a Democrat from Minnesota, former President Donald Trump wrote a message to his millions of supporters. Having harangued Biden and Harris, highlighting neither one of them seemed to be in charge, and accusing the vice president of being more interested in campaigning in San Francisco with showbiz friends, he turned to the issue at hand.
“When I was president,” he wrote, “Iran was in total check. They were starved for cash, fully contained, and desperate to make a deal. Kamala flooded them with American cash and, ever since, they’ve been exporting terror all over, and unraveling the Middle East.”
It is almost impossible to argue with this assessment, although no doubt Trump’s many detractors will try. Since Biden ascended to the presidency, his coterie of former Obama-administration staffers – albeit minus the loathsome Ben Rhodes – have seemed to put Iranian interests above even American ones.
The Iranians have shown a clear preference for candidate Harris to become President Harris. A war in the Middle East would likely be deleterious for her chances of following Biden into the Oval Office. Many questions remain, the principal one is whether the United States will be able to rein in Israel’s fury over being targeted a second time.
