After a weekend off, the UFC returns to action this Saturday with UFC Paris. Headlined by a top 15 lightweight matchup between Renato Moicano and Benoit Saint Denis, the card also features 13 other fights for your betting action, so let’s dive in on which bouts you should be betting.
All odds are courtesy of our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Renato Moicano (+220)
The main event is one heck of a fight, and I love Saint Denis, but he’s overvalued in this matchup.
“BSD” is a force of violent nature who is going to come in slugging on the feet and shooting 100 takedowns a minute. It’s an effective style, but one Moicano is poised to take advantage of. Moicano is an excellent grappler in his own right and a good enough striker to have success against the many openings Saint Denis leaves on the feet. Most importantly though is the cardio. This is a five-round fight, and Saint Denis’s style doesn’t lend itself to protracted slogs. If he can’t finish Moicano early, “Money” is going to take this thing to deep waters.
Brendan Allen (+184)
In the co-main event (which arguably should be the main event given the rankings of the fighters involved), Brendan Allen takes on Nassourdine Imavov in a top 10 middleweight battle. And like in the main event, there’s value on the underdog.
Allen is on a seven-fight win streak and has truly come into his own as a fighter. He’s an extremely dangerous grappler and an improving striker. Imavov also appears to be on the rise, but I think he’s getting a bit of a bump from oddsmakers here for his win over Jared Cannonier, who is clearly past his prime. Allen can stay competitive on the feet and has a clear advantage on the floor. I like Allen to win this fight outright.
Nora Cornolle (+176)
Cornolle faces Jacqueline Cavalcanti in a prelim women’s bantamweight bout that’s actually a rematch, and I like her changes to get the win.
Cavalcanti has never impressed me, in part because of her total disinterest in finishing fights. She’s a decent kickboxer, but she’s all volume and very little danger. That’s not Cornolle’s problem whatsoever. Cornolle is a tank of a woman.
Joanderson Brito by KO/TKO or Submission (+105)b
Brito faces William Gomis in the feature fight of the evening, and I believe this will be the Chute Boxe fighter’s big breakout.
Brito is a nightmare of a fighter to deal with, having beaten Diego Lopes on Contender Series. Since falling short in his UFC debut against Bill Algeo, the Brazilian has been hell on wheels for everyone he’s fought. Five fights in a row, five finishes against an increasing level of opposition have Brito on the cusp of a featherweight ranking, and given how dangerous he is in all phases, I like his chances against the more reserved Gomis. And when Brito wins, he wins big, as he’s only gone to a decision three times in his 21-fight career, so I like him to get a finish as well.
With another week off, the last time we were here it was UFC 306 and it was a losing weekend for us. Alas. But now we’ve got a good stretch of events to make it back, starting with Paris. Let’s go!
Until next week, enjoy the fights, good luck, and gamble responsibly!
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