Nick Sirianni and the Philadelphia Eagles suffered a borderline impossible loss against the Atlanta Falcons on "Monday Night Football."
According to Next Gen Stats, the Falcons had just a 0.7% chance to win the game with 1:56 left in regulation. Sirianni and company were on the wrong end of the seventh-most improbable win of the Next Gen era.
The Eagles made a few questionable crunch-time decisions before Kirk Cousins and the Falcons covered 70 yards in 1:05 and scored a game-winning touchdown with 34 seconds left.
"They were running a certain defense and junking it up in the middle," Sirianni told reporters in reference to Philadelphia's third-and-3 incompletion with 1:46 left, per a team-provided video. "So we were trying to go on around the outside, and it didn’t work."
The incompletion, a drop by star running back Saquon Barkley, stopped the clock. A run by Jalen Hurts, Barkley or someone else would have taken some 40 ticks off as Atlanta was out of timeouts.
The Eagles then trotted out their field goal unit to extend their lead from three points to six. In doing so, Philadelphia ensured the Falcons needed a touchdown to win. If they went for it on fourth-and-3 and did not convert, Atlanta would have needed just a field goal to tie.
ESPN's analytics writer Seth Walder called it a "sneaky big error" after the game. The analytics gave the Eagles a 90% chance to win if they kicked field goal and 95% chance to win if they went for it, Walder posted on X.
"In that scenario, I was thinking they might not have any timeouts there but obviously they did with the incomplete pass," Sirianni said. "We wanted to go up six points, and it didn't work.
"With it then being fourth and three to go for it, I thought with them not having any timeouts, I wanted them to be down a touchdown and see if they could drive the field. And they did. Hat's off to them."
Sirianni admitted there would be some second-guessing on those decisions and another costly first-half call, but credited the Falcons for making more plays down the stretch.
