During the Democratic convention, Michelle Obama referred to a feeling of hope “that had been buried for far too long.” She was referring to Vice President Harris. But that could well be perceived as an indirect jab at President Biden. Some have said Biden is officially a lame duck. He doesn’t have to be. Some have said Biden’s convention speech was his last big moment. It doesn’t have to be.
A few weeks before he dropped out, President Biden was greeted by a group of protesters. What made this group of protestors unique was that they were people who loved him. One protester carried a sign that read “We Love You But It’s Time.” That was the most positive post-debate review President Biden has received. Not even President Biden’s most loyal supporters could deny the disaster that was the debate. The only possible way to undo the damage was the same way to undo the damage of the Hurr report – transparency. That meant a lot of press conferences and interviews. No teleprompter. President Biden knew this. And in one such post-debate press conference, President Biden referred to Vice President Harris as “Trump.” If the debate was not the nail in the coffin, that was.
There was a rising call within his own party for Biden to step aside. Legitimate questions about his cognitive ability arose. Former House Speaker Pelosi privately met with Biden. Rumor has it Pelosi was a key factor in putting an end to Biden’s reelection plans. Many believe that President Biden’s performance in the debate was simply a deal breaker. Lose the debates, lose the election right? Pelosi and anyone who believes this has been watching too many West Wing reruns.
According to Historian Allan Lichtman, the Democrats voluntarily gave up an essential key a few weeks ago. A key to maintaining the White House. Lichtman has used a system of “keys” to accurately predict the outcome of almost every election in decades. Lichtman says the poor debate performance and press gaffes may have been irrelevant. Lichtman strongly warned Democrats against replacing President Biden. Lichtman claims debates make no difference whatsoever and he provides an interesting point. John Kerry won the debates, and Hillary Clinton won the debates. President Obama lost his first debate to Mitt Romney. It didn’t matter one bit. Lichtman says that debates have no impact on elections, whereas incumbent power can make all the difference in the world.
One must wonder what Pelosi would say about Alan Lichtman’s warnings about replacing Biden. Sure, Lichtman is not a former House Speaker. But accurately predicting every presidential election (including the surprise in 2016) does give one some credibility.
Lichtman insisted the best chance to thwart Trump would have been to stick with Biden. Lichtman also says the only alternative was for President Biden to resign today, have Vice President Harris become President, thus maintaining the “incumbent key.”
One would have to ask Lichtman why having Harris be the candidate does not count as the “incumbent key.” After all, she is the incumbent Vice President. The transition from Biden to Harris in the election seems to have happened relatively smoothly.
Whether Biden stepping aside was the right move or not, the Democratic party (not to mention the entire country) is already looking past President Biden’s presidency. Even at the convention, President Biden spoke on the first night, and past prime time. Moving him out of the spotlight like this was a mistake.
The Daily Beast’s Eleanor Clift has wisely pointed out that President Biden is still a key player. President Biden’s approval has significantly improved by dropping out of the race. This gives him more credibility, which can carry over if and when he campaigns for Vice President Harris. Many have suggested it was a mistake for then Vice-President Gore to distance himself from President Clinton in the 2000 race. And now that he is no longer distracted by running for President, Biden can devote all that energy to serving the remainder of his term. When elected, Biden implied he would be a “bridge” which many interpreted as being a one-term President. A one-term President would have the luxury of not having to run for re-election, and allow the incumbent Vice-President to inherit their success.
Some Haley supporters have rallied behind Harris. Recently, 200 Bush, Romney and McCain staffers crossed over to support Harris. The Cheney’s themselves have crossed over. They may dislike Harris and disagree with her on many (if not all) issues. But they value democracy. These former Haley supporters and GOP staffers should provide the same support to President Biden for the same reason. Not as a candidate but as a President. There is still time to get more essential legislation passed to ensure the well- being of the country and the success of his one-term presidency. And maybe that success can be a “key” of its own in helping Democrats maintain the White House.
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