A SUPERCOMPUTER has revealed the most likely points tallies required to progress in the new-look Champions League.
European football returns on Tuesday night with blockbuster games including AC Milan vs Liverpool.
But qualification for the knockout rounds of this year’s competition has changed as it is no longer eight groups of four teams.
Instead, 36 teams are in one huge league and will play eight games against different opposition.
The top eight will move straight into the last 16, while ninth to 24th go into a play-off round.
According to Opta, the most likely points tally needed to finish in the top eight is 15.
There is a 44.934 per cent chance this will seal an automatic spot in the last 16.
Meanwhile, the cut off to place 24th or higher is expected to be nine points.
There is a 53.463 chance a team will avoid one of the bottom 12 spots should they reach this tally.
That is crucial under new Uefa rules as Champions League sides will no longer drop down into the Europa League.
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Each club will play eight matches in the opening phase – against seeded opposition, in a system designed to ensure that teams play opponents of similar difficulty.
The top eight teams in the “final” table will automatically go through to the last 16, where they will be joined by the eight play-off winners of ties between the sides placed ninth to 24th in the table.
Despite there being just eight matches in the opening phase, European matches will be spread over 10 midweek slots.
The new Champions League format also sees the implication of two additional qualifying spots.
They will be awarded to the nations that are top of the “country coefficient” chart each season.
Teams will play at least two extra games in this year’s Champions League.
Four more additional matches will be played by the winner if they come through the play-off round.
An expanded Club World Cup is also set to take place at the end of this season.
And Manchester City midfieldier Rodri revealed on Tuesday ahead of his side’s clash with Inter Milan that players are close to striking due to too many matches.
He said: “Yeah, I think we are close to that [striking], it is easy to understand.
“If you ask any player he will say the same, it is not the opinion of Rodri.
“If it keeps this way, there will be a moment where we don’t have any other option.”
