Rumors of an Apple 'super cycle' appear to have been greatly exaggerated

• Apple fans bought an estimated 37 million new iPhone 16s during the first weekend of pre-orders.
• That's about 12.7% lower than last year's iPhone 15 series first-weekend sales, one analyst said.
• Investors had speculated the 16, featuring Apple Intelligence, would drive a major upgrade cycle.

The iPhone 16's first weekend on sale doesn't seem to be matching up with the monthslong hype.

It's Apple's first iPhone "built from the ground up" for Apple Intelligence, and it's a major part of the tech giant's AI plans as they, and the rest of the industry, spend heavily to get ahead in on artificial intelligence.

IPhone sales have slipped in recent months, and some analysts have predicted that the iPhone 16 — outfitted with the bells and whistles of Apple Intelligence — would be the smartphone that would drive a massive upgrade cycle.

But some early estimates paint a less optimistic picture.

Ming-Chi Kuo, an analyst in Taiwan known for his Apple predictions, published a blog post on Sunday with estimates of the iPhone 16's sales during its first preorder weekend, based on his latest supply chain survey and pre-order results from Apple's official websites.

The series sold about 37 million units between last Friday and Sunday — a 12.7% drop year-over-year from the iPhone 15's release weekend, according to Kuo.

"The key factor is the lower-than-expected demand for the iPhone 16 Pro series," he wrote.

That's because "the major selling point, Apple Intelligence, is not available at launch alongside the iPhone 16 release," Kuo said. "Additionally, intense competition in the Chinese market continues to impact iPhone demand."

It's a far cry from the "golden upgrade cycle" that Wedbush Securities analysts predicted after Apple Intelligence was introduced at the Worldwide Developers Conference in June. They maintained that position when the iPhone 16 was introduced on September 9.

"Today in Cupertino Apple launched iPhone 16 which we believe will be the most successful iPhone unit launch in its history as Apple Intelligence will be the launching pad for the consumer AI Revolution globally," they said in a note last week.

Investors are divided on the issue, Gene Munster, Deepwater Asset Management managing partner, wrote in a Sunday note. Munster added that the delay to the launch of new AI features and their overall impact on user experience are the main factors working against an upgrade "supercycle" for investors.

And other Apple watchers were more cautious, too. "It's not happening. But it will for the iPhone 17," Bloomberg correspondent Mark Gurman said on X.

Kuo's data are based on pre-orders, of course, and Apple launches in the past have showed that many shoppers prefer to head to a store to get the handsets themselves. The iPhone 16 will be available in-store on Friday, and Apple has reportedly been training retail employees on all that Apple Intelligence has to offer.

The AI tools include a more helpful Siri, AI Writing Tools, and visual intelligence. But the features will only begin rolling out in October — weeks after the iPhone 16's release.

So, there's still time for the iPhone 16 to grab the hearts and wallets of shoppers.