Republicans are feeling better and better about their chances of knocking off Sen. Jon Tester (D) in Montana’s hotly contested Senate race, which would greatly increase their chances of winning back the chamber next year.
Several recent polls have shown Republican businessman Tim Sheehy leading Tester by a few points, within the margin of error but not what Democrats are hoping for in a state seen as critical to their chances of keeping Senate control.
The race is still expected to be tight, but multiple election forecasters have shifted their ratings of the contest from toss-up to leaning Republican.
The election seems to hinge on whether the race can be centered on local issues, as Tester has sought to make it, or nationalized in the context of the 2024 cycle at large, which favors Sheehy and the GOP.
“He’s trying to present himself as kind of a maverick in D.C., more focused on Montana’s issues than what’s happening within the Democratic caucus, and I think people have finally started to see through that,” said Chuck Denowh, a former executive director of the Montana Republican Party.
Montana is a reliably red state in presidential elections and is likely to comfortably vote for former President Trump for the third straight time in November. But Tester is also an institution in the state.
He was first elected in 2006 and has since been reelected twice, getting through narrowly by a few percentage points each time. Although Montana has voted for the GOP presidential candidate each time this century, it has still elected Democrats and had a Democratic governor as recently as less than five years ago.
But as the state has begun voting more consistently Republican, Tester is the last remaining Democrat serving in statewide office there.
Throughout his time in office, Tester has sought to emphasize his deep ties to the state as a third-generation dirt farmer who brings “Montana values” to his job as a senator. During the campaign, Tester has often focused on Montana-specific issues, discussing the protection of public lands, making investments in rural areas and safety for Native American tribes, which make up a significant part of the state’s population.
Tester has also sought to keep his distance from national Democrats and expressed a willingness to criticize his own party over certain issues. He has said he will not endorse any candidate in the presidential race and skipped the Democratic convention last month when Vice President Harris formally became the Democratic nominee.
Observers had predicted from the outset that the race would be one of the closest and most intense Senate contests in the country, and they still do. With Republicans already likely to pick up a Senate seat in West Virginia in November, they would need to flip just one more to win back a majority in the body.
Recent polls have not offered good news for Tester.
An AARP poll from last month showed Sheehy leading Tester by 6 points, while an internal poll from the Senate Republicans’ campaign arm had Sheehy leading by 4 points. A few election forecasters, including Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball, shifted their ratings of the race from toss-up to leaning Republican.
“After almost 18 years in Washington, Montanans are fed up with Two-Faced Tester pretending to be a moderate in Montana while voting with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris in DC,” said National Republican Senatorial Committee spokesperson Maggie Abboud said in response to the shifts.
The forecast from Decision Desk HQ/The Hill also considers the race to lean Republican, giving Sheehy a roughly 75 percent chance of winning.
Experts say Tester has overcome electoral obstacles in the past but faces his biggest challenge yet this fall.
“For a long time, Democrats could run as Montanans and make a serious run at competing with or defeating Republicans who are kind of just running as Republicans,” said Lee Banville, the director of the University of Montana’s journalism program and a political analyst.
“And what we've kind of watched happen — partially through people moving into the state, and partially through just the sort of polarization of the nation — is we have seen that politics have gotten increasingly more national out here, that it's harder to cobble together that coalition that Tester has been able to.”
Sheehy and Republicans have sought to attack Tester through tying him to President Biden and Harris, pointing to Tester overwhelmingly voting in line with Biden’s position.
Republican strategist Erik Iverson, a former state GOP chair and a pollster for Sheehy’s campaign, said Tester is also facing a stronger candidate than he has before in Sheehy, who is a former Navy SEAL.
“He's never faced a candidate or an opponent like Sheehy, one who is articulate and savvy on policy, but also has a bio that is just really, really impressive,” he said.
Iverson also argued that Tester’s strategy has more so been to focus on attacking the character of Sheehy, and his past opponents, than focusing on Montana issues.
Democrats have levied several attacks against Sheehy over his background, pointing to his significant wealth as a businessman and accusing him of carpetbagging as he grew up in Minnesota, though he has lived in Montana for the past decade.
Sheehy has also faced criticism over some stories he has told about his past, including one in which he gave inconsistent explanations about how he received a gunshot wound and another about the success of his company, Bridger Aerospace.
But Sheehy allies argue that those controversies are not defining the race.
The Hill has reached out to the Sheehy and Tester campaigns for comment.
Democrats maintain that the race is close and Tester has a path to victory, as he has regularly outpaced other Democrats’ performance in Montana.
Monica Robinson, a spokesperson for Tester's campaign, told The Hill that Tester is "no stranger to tough races" but has won in the past because of his support from various groups and his record.
"He's won three in a row because he has a strong coalition of support across the state, including independent voters and Republicans, and he has a record of delivering for Montana," she said.
Tester told Punchbowl News the contest is a “margin of error race” and argued that the AARP poll, which had him performing the same as Harris in the state, has “inconsistencies with reality.”
Democratic strategist Antjuan Seawright said Tester can still successfully run as a Montanan away from the national environment. He said Tester more so than any senator has delivered “meaningful results” for his state in a bipartisan way.
On his campaign website, Tester discusses his advocacy for Biden’s bipartisan infrastructure law that he said is improving the state’s “aging” infrastructure as well as his willingness to push back against the administration on the need for greater border security and administration rules that “hurt rural America.”
“I think his ability to punch above his political weight, if you will, election after election, and his ability to focus on what's going on on Montana streets and not necessarily what’s going on on K Street I think that is one of the things that makes him well positioned to win,” Seawright said.
Banville said Tester will need excited youth turnout as he had in his 2018 victory, which was the only time Tester won more than 50 percent of the vote. He also noted that the abortion ballot measure that Montanans are set to vote on could further boost turnout he needs to win.
“It’s going to be a turnout question … but it’s a real narrow path,” he said. “It’s going to have to line up perfectly.”
