There are close races to keep an eye on at the Emmys, and we recently highlighted some of the possible upset winners for this Sunday night, September 15. But what about the sure things? Is there anyone who simply can’t miss? According to the predictions of thousands of Gold Derby users, there’s potential for an upset in every single race this weekend. But in a few categories the margin is so wide between the front-runner and everybody else that they come as close as possible to a done deal.
Best Comedy Series: “The Bear”
Every single one of our Expert journalists, Editors and All-Star Top 24 are predicting the FX dramedy to win for the second year in a row. There’s only one elite pundit who disagrees: one of our Top 24 Users is still holding out hope for “Hacks,” but at this point it looks like an uphill battle, especially after “The Bear” won seven Creative Arts Emmys last weekend.
Best Comedy Actor: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”
Our Editors, Top Users and All-Stars are unanimous that White will win. In fact, he has hardly lost anything since “The Bear” premiered. To date he has claimed two Golden Globes, three SAG Awards and two Critics Choice Awards for his performance. Only two Experts disagree with the consensus: one says D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (“Reservation Dogs”) will upset, and one bets on Steve Martin (“Only Murders in the Building”).
Best Comedy Supporting Actor: Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”
The defending champion in his category, Moss-Bachrach may be even farther out front than his co-star White. Our Editors, Top Users and All-Stars all say he’ll win again. Only one Expert disagrees, picking Bowen Yang (“Saturday Night Live”) instead.
Best Drama Series: “Shōgun”
It won 14 Emmys at the Creative Arts Emmys, an unprecedented feat. Will any show come close to beating it for the top prize? Well, one Editor and two Top Users warn of a “Crown” surprise, but that would be one mighty big surprise.
Best Drama Supporting Actress: Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”
She beat Meryl Streep (“Only Murders in the Building”) for the Golden Globe. Then she won the SAG Award where she faced off against series leads. So she’s the overwhelming favorite at the Emmys, especially since no “Shōgun” actors were nominated here. Her strongest competition: two Experts say her co-star Lesley Manville will upset, while one Top User bets on Greta Lee (“The Morning Show”).
Best Limited Series: “Baby Reindeer”
This watercooler phenom was a front-runner almost since the day it premiered. After winning awards for casting and editing at the Creative Arts Emmys, it looks even stronger here. Two Experts and one Top User think “True Detective: Night Country,” the nominations leader with 19, will prevail instead, but it was shut-out at Creative Arts, so winning here would be a coup.
Best Movie/Limited Supporting Actress: Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer”
Experts say there’s fierce competition in this race, with two of them betting on Kali Reis (“True Detective”) and two betting on Gunning’s co-star Nava Mau. But Editors, Top Users and All-Stars are unanimous that Gunning has got this.
Best Movie/Limited Writing: “Baby Reindeer”
Producer and star Richard Gadd is nominated for writing all episodes of the limited series, and this may be his strongest category. One Expert and one All-Star favor “Fargo” for the episode “The Tragedy of the Commons,” and one Expert expects this to go to “Fellow Travelers” for “You’re Wonderful.” But the rest of our elite pundits agree it’s Gadd’s to lose.
Best Talk Series: “The Daily Show”
The defending champ in this category faces “The Late Show with Stephen Colbert” (predicted by one of our Top Users) and “Jimmy Kimmel Live” (backed by one Expert and one Top User), but the overwhelming consensus is that Jon Stewart and the rest of the news team will walk away with this.
