House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., is facing his last critical leadership test of this year as congressional lawmakers grapple with a looming government shutdown deadline at the end of this month.
The House Republican Conference is at odds over how to proceed with funding the government in the next fiscal year, which begins Oct. 1. A growing contingent of GOP lawmakers are resigned to a short-term spending patch called a continuing resolution (CR) until December to give negotiators more time to work out next year’s federal spending.
Conservatives on Johnson’s right flank, however, want him to keep fighting for a six-month CR attached to a bill that would require proof of citizenship in the voter registration process – which the Democrat-controlled White House and Senate have called a nonstarter.
Johnson was forced to delay a planned vote on that bill last week amid a wave of Republican defections from lawmakers who saw it as a "messaging" tactic without a sufficient plan to get the Safeguarding American Voter Eligibility (SAVE) Act enacted.
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How he navigates the political quagmire could be pivotal for the Louisiana Republican in the House GOP’s December leadership decisions.
A majority of GOP lawmakers who spoke with Fox News Digital saw little appetite for a coup – particularly so close to the election – but several did acknowledge that Johnson would face backlash if he fully acquiesced to Democrats on spending.
"If there’s an omnibus, I think he’ll likely get challenged for speaker," one GOP lawmaker told Fox News Digital, noting the challenge would be significant.
Rep. Eric Burlison, R-Mo., a member of the ultra-conservative House Freedom Caucus, admitted there was room for blowback but did not see any imminent threat to Johnson.
"If he really flubs this, and people feel like they were deceived – but I don't see that he's on that path now," Burlison said.
Freedom Caucus member Rep. Andy Ogles, R-Tenn., noted he was close to Johnson personally but said broadly, "I think if we get jammed with an omni it will be a significant factor in any kind of leadership elections across the board."
He said it was "not really a topic of conversation at this point" but added that it "could be part of the calculus" for others.
Meanwhile, Reps. Troy Nehls, R-Texas, and Cory Mills, R-Fla., who have not shied away from criticizing the speaker, suggested it was inevitable that he would face some sort of rival.
"I think in order for Mike Johnson to remain speaker, in my humble opinion, it's going to require some Democrats to help him," Nehls told Fox News Digital, adding that House Judiciary Chairman Jim Jordan, R-Ohio, would be a "great" candidate.
Jordan was one of several Republican leaders who ran for speaker after the ouster of ex-Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., over McCarthy’s own handling of government spending last fall. Jordan’s bid was derailed by opposition from moderates, however.
Mills, who came out against Johnson’s CR plan, said, "I think he's gonna have a significant leadership challenge regardless."
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"I don't think this is going to be that pivotal moment where it's a make or break, but what I will say is, is that the one guarantee that I continue to try and sound the alarm on or beat the drums on, is…we're heading towards economic collapse," Mills said.
Meanwhile, another conservative lawmaker who spoke with Fox News Digital anonymously was emphatic that, unlike his predecessor, Johnson is safe from a political coup.
"I think just what little conversations I've had with him last weekend, what little conversations I've had with him and staff, I think they are genuine in wanting to make sure we don't end up with an omnibus," that conservative said.
In addition to pressure from within his own conference, Johnson is also having to navigate government funding talks while the Republicans’ 2024 nominee, former President Donald Trump, is actively calling for a partial shutdown if election security legislation cannot be passed.
Johnson, for his part, has told reporters that he is still sticking firmly to his course and would work through the weekend on the issue.
"We're going to continue to work on this. Whip is going to do the hard work to build consensus, we're going to work through the weekend on that. And I want any member of Congress in either party to explain to the American people why we should not ensure that only U.S. citizens are voting in U.S. elections," Johnson said earlier this week.
If Republicans lose the majority, Johnson will only need a majority vote of his conference to remain its leader. A Speaker of the House, however, needs a majority of the entire chamber – meaning the GOP would likely need to be in lock-step for him to win.
