We are going to get a fresh read on the psyche of the American consumer on Friday when the University of Michigan puts out its latest indexes of consumer sentiment and consumer expectations.
But there’s been some sobering news lately about the kind of shape the American consumer is in.
A few days ago, Ally Financial reported that its borrowers are struggling with high inflation and a cooling labor market.
And a new report from Deloitte projects holiday sales to grow at the slowest pace in six years, thanks in part to rising credit card debt.
Consumer credit has been rising pretty consistently over the last year, according to the Federal Reserve.
Brian McCarthy with Deloitte’s retail and consulting practice said he’s been keeping track of credit card debt, and the delinquency rate is starting to look a little concerning.
“This has recently hit about 10.9%, which is the highest we’ve seen in 12 years for credit cards,” McCarthy said.
McCarthy said it’s important to put that number into context. Credit card debt is a pretty small fraction of consumer debt overall. But he said there are other signs that people are feeling overextended.
“Personal savings is also been something we’ve been tracking,” McCarthy said. “We’re seeing that decrease a bit.”
This week, Ally Financial said that some of its customers are struggling with their auto loans. Steve Biggar, a bank analyst at Argus Research, said borrowers are having to deal with high prices.
“Particularly at the low, and low-to-mid income levels, inflation has really impacted that cohort,” Biggar said.
On the other hand, Biggar said lenders in general are still feeling fairly comfortable about the economy.
“If you have a job, if unemployment is low, or if you lose a job and can replace it fairly easily, you will stay current on your bills,” Biggar said.
But we’re already seeing evidence that the labor market is cooling down, said Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide.
“You know, what the consumer’s facing is a moderation in labor demand, and also a moderation in wage growth,” Bostjancic said.
And that means consumers are probably going to keep feeling stretched.
“That puts the consumer in a period where they are going to be more cautious with their spending,” Bostjancic said.
But Bostjancic said people will keep shopping if they can find sales or discounts.
