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No matter who wins the presidency, bitcoin will close 2024 at fresh all-time highs, according to Standard Chartered.
But between the two candidates, the cryptocurrency will rocket significantly higher if Donald Trump is elected.
Under the self-branded "crypto president," bitcoin could reach $125,000 by the year's end, analyst Geoff Kendrick wrote on Thursday.
That indicates nearly 117% upside, based on bitcoin's price of $57,633 on Thursday morning.
Though the former president once objected to the asset class, this election has marked a turnaround in his stance.
Speaking at the Bitcoin 2024 conference in July, Trump announced plans to eliminate federal crypto regulations known as "Checkpoint 2.0," and to replace Gary Gensler, chair of the Securities and Exchange Commission.
He also promised to keep 100% of federally-owned bitcoin in a national stockpile. According to Kendrick, the current supply is around 1% of all bitcoin that will ever be mined.
"This is similar to the amounts of BTC held by MicroStrategy and by BlackRock's ETF, the two largest known BTC holdings," the global head of digital assets research wrote.
Trump's pro-crypto switch was especially evident when he faced off against President Joe Biden, whose administration was more stringent toward the industry.
But compared to Biden, current Democratic candidate Kamala Harris will be more open to crypto than some suspect, Kendrick suggests.
For instance, where Biden kept in place a bill that prevents banks from providing digital asset custody, Harris would likely shift course.
If Harris wins the presidency, bitcoin will reach $75,000 by the end of the year, Kendrick estimates. Though nowhere near Trump's outcome, that still surpasses bitcoin's all-time high of nearly $74,000.
"In the event of a Harris victory, we think BTC would head higher after an initial dip, once the market recognizes that regulatory change is still likely under Harris, even if at a slower pace," he said.
In line with this forecast, Bernstein analyst Gautam Chhugani similarly expects bitcoin to surge under Trump, as the market has yet to price in a positive regulatory environment.
He predicts the currency will reach as high as $90,000 by December.
Meanwhile, Kendrick cited other bitcoin-positives in the months ahead. The currency should benefit from the Treasury yields re-steepening, while momentum returns to the bitcoin ETFs.
Although inflows were week in the last few months, momentum tends to be seasonal, Kendrick said, adding that risk sentiment was low this summer.
Even if Trump wins, Kendrick tempered his prior outlook that bitcoin can reach $150,000 by the year's end. However, he maintains that it will hit $200,000 by the end of next year, regardless of who is president.
