Central Michigan Preview, 2024-25

Central Michigan Chippewas

November 11th, 2024 at Fiserv Forum

Head Coach: Tony Barbee (166-185 overall, 35-58 at Central Michigan)

Three-Year NET Average: 304.0

Three-Year kenpom Average: 309.7

Projected 2023-24 T-Rank: 265

Photo from Central Michigan Athletics

State of the Program

Tony Barbee notched his first winning season at Central Michigan, finishing at 18-14, including a stellar 12-6 in the MAC that saw the Chippewas finish fourth in the league, which was only more impressive as they started the season 5-8 before turning things around. They accomplished that by slowing the pace and playing lockdown defense. The downside is that preceded a rough summer with six of the top eight rotation players leaving via graduation or transfer. Barbee was aggressive in return, bringing in five players via transfer expected to contribute.

Rotation

The rotation starts at the point, where Anthony Pritchard is the tip of the spear on defense and the maestro of the offense. He led the Chippewas in scoring, assists, and steals before entering the transfer portal, though he later withdrew. Jakobi Heady joins him in the backcourt from Bethune-Cookman. He thrives attacking inside and was an indispensable offensive piece as BCU scored 15.4 points/100 possessions more with him on the court. Cayden Vasko returns from last year's team where he was the defensive specialist, which is fortunate because his offensive efficiency was anemic. Up front, Barbee brought in a pair of transfers. Ugnius Jarusevicius from Cal State Bakersfield provides a big body while Armani Mighty struggled to break through at Boston College but should make more of an impact in the MAC. The real issue the team has is on the bench, where the total of ten transfers out left Barbee to scramble for relatively unproven role-players.

Style of Play

At CMU, Barbee has transitioned from an up-tempo offense that relies on threes and paint shots to a slower pace offense that takes fewer threes and settles for more midrange. The positive is that midrange shots are the only action where they their efficiency is not in the bottom third percentile (39th). The negative is that they still only score 0.71 points per possession on midrange, which is the lowest efficiency rate of any action they use more than 2% of the time. But the alternatives aren't much better. They shot 30.0% and 30.1% from three the last two years and lost their only two shooters who averaged over 28.0% last season.

Their work in the transfer portal seems like a deliberate move to further change the offense. Heady is lethal at both getting into the lane and finishing at the rim. While the team still doesn't have shooters, they have excellent offensive rebounders in Jarusevicius and Mighty. They also have 7-foot sophomore Hunter Harding who will hope to develop as an interior force. Expect this team to try to get inside, settle for midrange when they can't get to the rim, and attack the offensive glass relentlessly.

Shot chart from cbbanalytics.com

The defensive end of the floor is where CMU should excel. They had the #1 defense in the MAC last year. CMU uses their length well and attack shooters. They have shot blockers all over the floor, and expect that to continue with the length they have all over the court. What's most impressive is they aren't foul-prone for a team that aggressively challenges shots. They are happy to play in the half-court and their pressure is on the shooters, not the ball-handlers. Barbee had his first winning season and league records at CMU last year, and if that is to continue it will be because of their work on defense.

2024-25 Outlook

Roster continuity is a problem, but Pritchard and Heady make for a solid backcourt that fits the way Barbee is running his offense. They would really benefit from Vasko and Harding making sophomore year jumps. Barbee did a great job of adding length at every position and the defense should give them a solid floor. If the newcomers can add scoring at the rim and second chance scoring opportunities, even a mediocre MAC offense could be good enough to have them in the top half of the league. That said, this is very likely a Quadrant 4 opponent when it comes to Marquette's final team sheet.

Marquette Connection

This game will be a reunion for two coaches whose history began with a piece of Marquette's past. Current Marquette assistant coach Neill Berry got his coaching start thanks to former Marquette assistant coach Darrin Horn, who was an assistant on the 2003 Final Four team before taking his first head coaching job at Western Kentucky. Berry joined his staff in 2005, then was promoted to a full-time assistant in 2007. That same year, Horn hired Scott Cherry off the George Mason staff. Together, Horn, Berry, and Cherry helped guide Western Kentucky to the 2008 Sweet 16, knocking off Drake and San Diego before falling to UCLA. Horn took the South Carolina job and brought Berry and Cherry with him. After a 21-10 season ended in the NIT, Cherry departed for the High Point head coaching job. Fifteen years later, this game will bring Marquette assistant Neill Berry and Central Michigan assistant Scott Cherry back together.