How good can this team be? Well, if things go well...pretty damn good.
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Several years ago, Bo Ryan brought his Wisconsin team to Cameron as part of the ACC/Big Ten Challenge and it was stunning to see how big that team was. When the game started though, it quickly became clear that smaller Duke was much more athletic and didn’t have too much trouble with the bigger Badgers.
The year, Jon Scheyer has put together a team that is talented but may be - probably is - the biggest team in Duke history. It might put that Wisconsin team to shame.
Look at the size of the roster:
We didn't list the walk-ons, semi-walk-ons and former walk-ons, but even they’re big - Stanley Borden is 7-0 and Neal Begovich is 6-9. Only Spencer Hubbard, at 5-8, is less than 6-5.
This team combines size and athleticism. Look at that roster again and ask yourself a question that we can’t fully answer, but is still interesting: who is the least athletic player Duke has this year? Ngongba? Knueppel? Sheffield? Harris?
Somebody has to be the least athletic in a group but those guys are all excellent athletes and it’s going to make things tough for Duke’s opponents.
Let’s look first at the defense.
We’re pretty sure that Khaman Maluach, Cooper Flagg, Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster will start. For argument’s sake, let’s put Brown in as well.
What do you do with that? You have two 6-6 guards who are mobile and very capable. If you get past them, you have Brown, who is a tremendous defender, and Flagg, who may be even better (the hype is fun but the proof is always on the court, so let’s wait and see who he is and what he can do). And if you get past that and into the lane, you have to deal with an emerging shot blocker in Maluach who may become world class in that department- and don’t forget that Flagg is also an outstanding eraser.
Scheyer generally prefers a man-to-man defense, but you could have fun with a zone in certain situations and not that he needs our advice, but as a bit of an historical joke and because it’d be great with this team, it’d be really cool if he dusted off Jerry Tarkanian’s old Ameoba defense. It was a highly effective scheme and for some reason, no one that we know of ever picked up on it, which is too bad. It was an amazing defense.
Assuming (again) that they don’t start, you won’t lose much if anything defensively when you bring James and Gillis in. It’ll probably take a little while to see how Evans, Knueppel, Ngongba and Sheffield do defensively, but Scheyer should have at least seven players who are first-rate defenders - and all big and athletic. You don’t see that very often.
Take a look back at last year’s roster: Jeremy Roach and Jared McCain were solid defenders but they were smallish. Kyle Filipowski wasn’t bad but he wasn’t great either. Proctor was very good and Mark Mitchell was too. Foster was a freshman and capable but still a freshman. Ryan Young busted his butt with limited athleticism. Jaylen Blakes was brilliant on that end, but Sean Stewart and TJ Power were often defensive liabilities.
Having almost an entire rotation of solid, tall athletes who willingly defend?
Scheyer is going to love that. And if it turns out that, say (again for argument’s sake) Evans or Knueppel have a particular offensive role to fill but are not great on the other end, he could mask a potential defensive liability with the other defenders around them.
He’s often said he’s a defense-first coach and that should be a big strength for this team.
Offense should be solid as well.
If you haven't figured this out, coach Scheyer sees the game through the same eyes that player Scheyer did. He puts an emphasis on smart basketball and has consistently pursued good shooters. And there are plenty of those on this team.
The starters should all be capable. Maluach reportedly has good range for a big guy and as Scott reported today, Scheyer is keen on getting the 7-2 big guy easy shots inside. Flagg took some criticism for his perimeter shot up until this summer, but he appears to have ironed it out a good bit.
At Syracuse, Brown shot exactly 69.8 percent as a freshman and again as a sophomore. He didn’t take a ton of threes - none in his first season and 19 last year - but he hit 36.8 percent of those.
Proctor took some heat for his shot in his first two seasons. He had some noticeable slumps, honestly, but his shooting did improve: the Aussie hit 38.1 percent overall as a freshman, then 42.3 percent as a sophomore. He pushed his three point shooting from 32 percent in his first season to 35.2 percent last year. He’s shown he’s capable. He just needs to be consistent.
In Foster’s case, he shot 43.7 percent overall as a freshman and an impressive 40 percent from behind the line. He should continue to improve. We’d like to see him improve his mid-range game and to drive more aggressively, which opens up more options all around.
If Duke needs shooters off the bench, Scheyer has some potential microwaves: Gillis was a three point getter for Purdue for four seasons. Last year he racked up 46.8 percent but keep in mind that people were double and triple-teaming Zach Edey, which gave him a lot of alone time on the perimeter.
At Tulane, James hit 38.2 percent of his attempts.
Knueppel has generated a lot of buzz over the summer and the consensus is that he’s the biggest surprise in practice. He knows what he’s doing. Evans had some massive scoring games in high school and he’s the kind of fiery guy who might get going and get in takeover mode. And Harris has a gorgeous jump shot.
They don’t all need to be hot at the same time, but odds are someone will be.
There’s also a lot of versatility.
Consider this as a possible depth chart and please overlook the positional titles. There’s a lot of size and skill overlap. You’ll get the idea though:
Center:
Power forward:
Wing:
Point:
Consider for a moment if you stick with the hypothetical lineup we listed above and you sub in James for Brown, that would effectively give Duke three point guards...all over 6-5.
Small ball with big guards: it’s kind of fascinating really. It would be fun if those three were in with Kneuppel and Evans too. They’d still have to play defense, but it’d be great to watch.
There is a lot of talent on this roster and the biggest question, and challenge, is how it will all sort itself out. What will the roles be?
You can see some early indications of course.
Flagg is likely to be the dominant force. He works on both ends and if he is the generational talent people have proclaimed him to be, he’ll be The Guy.
Maluach, even if his developmental curve is longer than anyone expects, is still a mobile 7-2. His current offensive level is unknown but he’ll anchor the interior defense. We’ve seen hints of brilliance there already.
Brown will certainly be a factor because he’s also a superb defender and the other transfers, with the possible exception of Sheffield, will have important roles and of course we’re all but certain that Proctor and Foster will start.
The reality though is that not everyone will play as much as they might like. This is not as difficult a situation as Kentucky had in 2015 when John Calipari had so much talent that he was forced to use platoons to keep everyone happy, but there is a lot of talent and there will at some point be separation. Some will move up and some will move down and how roles evolve and are accepted will be crucial.
This is a team with legitimate national championship aspirations but everyone has their own personal goals as well. How those things are balanced will be key to a successful season. As always, there are no guarantees, but this group has a chance to do very, very well.
