AUSTIN (KXAN) — The strongest cold front of the season moved through Central Texas over the weekend, finally ushering in fall-like morning low temperatures for most of Texas. Now that it feels briefly like fall, it’s time to look at when we can expect that first freeze.
A freeze is defined as having a low temperature of 32º or colder. Technically, a hard freeze is when temperatures drop to 28º or below. You can get frost with air temperatures several degrees above freezing.
For the purposes of this, we’ll just look at the average first day with low temperatures of 32º or colder coming after the conclusion of the summer months. The average is over a 30-year period from 1991-2020.
In Central Texas, there’s quite a lot of variety with our first freeze, largely dependent on terrain as well as urban heat impacts. While Austin averages the first freeze around the start of December, it can happen several days earlier for the Austin suburbs away from Interstate 35.
The average first freeze in the Texas Hill Country is closer to the middle of, or even early November. Eastern counties in Central Texas average a first freeze closer to the end of November, and parts of Mason and Gillespie County average their first freeze near the end of October!
Looking at the last five winters in Austin (Camp Mabry), you can see that three of the last five winters had the first freezes come in December. The first freeze of the winter 2021-2022 came particularly late, but the first freeze of the winter 2019-2020 came early.
The average first freeze after winter is December 1 in Austin.
There were four times Austin had its first freeze in October. The earliest freeze (after summer) on record in Austin was October 26, 1924.
In Austin, the latest first freezes after summer were not until January of the following year. The latest first freeze ever was on January 15, 1989.
We're set for a La Niña winter after an El Niño winter 2023-2024. Before last winter, our previous three winters were La Niña winters. Typically, La Niña winters are warmer and drier than normal. The last three La Niña winters had the first freeze either on time or later than normal, and none of those winters had an earlier-than-normal freeze.
