An independent candidate is threatening to scramble the race for Nebraska’s Senate seat in what could be one of the more surprising contests this fall.
Dan Osborn is running a long-shot independent bid to oust Sen. Deb Fischer (R) in the reliably red state. Democrats are sitting out the race, and Republicans have sought to paint Osborn as a Democrat in independent’s clothing, though he has distanced himself from both parties.
Polling has been sparse, and observers caution against assuming this year’s race will buck historic trends in the state, which has sent GOP candidates to both its Senate seats since 2012.
But a recent poll from SurveyUSA/Split Ticket showed Fischer running neck and neck with Osborn, raising eyebrows among political observers and leading some to wonder just how competitive the race might turn out to be.
“At some point, those of us who observe Nebraska politics are going to have to take seriously that this actually is a tight race,” said Kevin Smith, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln. “I'm coming around to the view that maybe the race is on for that Senate seat, which is a little shocking, given that, in statewide races, Republicans have dominated for years and years.”
Osborn, a blue-collar union worker and political newcomer, courted Democrats for their backing, according to the party, but he announced this spring that he wouldn’t accept party endorsements. He’s notably backed by United Auto Workers and other labor organizations.
Nebraska Democrats said the move “betrayed” their trust and announced plans to move forward with a write-in candidate, but such an effort has not yet materialized.
Vince Powers, a Lincoln-based attorney and former chair of the state Democratic Party, argued the tension isn’t going to stop most Nebraska Democrats from casting ballots for Osborn.
“There are two names on the ballot. One is a senator who's unpopular among Democrats. And so Osborn doesn't have to be this dynamic, charismatic person — he just is not Deb Fisher. And that's good enough for 100 percent of the Democrats. And then, of course, you have the middle,” Powers said.
Osborn’s campaign said it turned in at least 12,000 signatures in August to get his nonpartisan campaign on the ballot, touting the numbers as a sign of enthusiasm for an alternative. The Navy veteran says he's running to “break the two-party doom loop we've all been trapped in,” and he’s not planning to caucus with either party if elected.
Political observers are skeptical that Fischer, who has kept a low profile in the Senate, has done anything that would lead to an independent defeating her.
She’s raised more than $6 million since 2019, according to filings from the Federal Election Commission, while Osborn has brought in just $1.6 million since launching his campaign.
Still, the SurveyUSA/Split Ticket poll puts Fischer just 1 point ahead of her challenger, with 39 percent to Osborn’s 38 percent. Another 23 percent are undecided.
Analysis from the pollster said Fischer would look “extremely likely to win” given the number of undecideds and the share of Osborn’s voters who say they’re unfamiliar with him. “But that hasn’t happened yet, and at the moment, our poll finds something very similar to what Osborn’s released internals are yielding: a very unexpectedly competitive race,” the analysis reads.
The Fischer campaign’s pollster, John Rogers, cast doubt on the survey in a statement to The Hill. The results are weighted to the U.S. census, and Rogers argued this gives young voters outsize representation.
“According to the survey, seniors will have the smallest share of the electorate and 18–34 year-olds will be the largest. That's something that has never happened in the history of the state of Nebraska, or probably any other state,” Rogers said.
But a spokesperson for Osborn’s campaign contended the numbers reflect “the groundswell of support” for the independent bid, and noted they track with a handful of internal polls, each with a different pollster, that all show the race within the margin of error.
“This is a different kind of campaign, bringing together people from all backgrounds and walks of life: Republicans, Democrats, Independents, and everyone in between. People are tired of the partisan food fights in Washington, and they want a serious leader who can make our government work for them,” the spokesperson said in a statement.
An Osborn-sponsored YouGov survey released last month shows Fischer at 43 percent and Osborn at 41 percent, and a July poll from Red Wave Strategy Group/Impact Research puts the pair at 42 percent each.
“At this point, there's four surveys that are all saying approximately the same thing, which is that among decided voters, Sen. Fisher and Dan Osborn are neck and neck,” said Sam Wang, a neuroscience professor at Princeton and the founder of the Princeton Election Consortium. “What it means is that things could go either way between now and Nov. 5.”
The nonpartisan Cook Political Report rates the race as solid Republican, Wang noted, but he argued election handicappers can be “lagging indicators” that a race might be headed in a new direction.
“As conditions change, there’s a possibility that those ratings will change,” Wang said of the Nebraska race. “There's room in that race for a lot of movement in either direction because of all these undecided voters.”
A Torchlight Strategies poll sponsored by the Fischer campaign, on the other hand, shows the incumbent a whopping 26 points ahead.
Omaha-based Republican strategist Ryan Horn argued the polls suggesting a competitive race are “out of whack” with reality in the Cornhusker State.
“You got a guy with no home party, who doesn’t have much money, who’s not done any advertising,” Horn said of Osborn, adding that the independent also hasn't put up a strong enough argument for why voters should turn away from Fischer. “This is all much ado about nothing."
Fischer was elected to the Senate in 2012, defeating Democrat Bob Kerrey by roughly 16 points. Six years later, she trounced Democrat Jane Raybould by 19 points.
Former President Trump won the state by about 25 points in 2016 and by about 20 points against President Biden in 2020. Fischer, who has endorsed Trump, is expected to get a boost from having him at the top of the ticket, while some say Osborn could get some help from a handful of measures on the ballot, including an initiative aimed at expanding abortion rights.
Paul Landow, a political science professor at the University of Nebraska–Omaha and a former executive director of the state Democratic Party, said Osborn’s bid is “admirable,” but shrugged off the polling, arguing, “This is Nebraska.”
Independents across the country have faced uphill climbs for the upper chamber, where they currently hold just four seats. Al Gross sought to oust Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) in Alaska in 2020, and Evan McMullin ran against incumbent Republican Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) in the midterms. Both candidates were backed by Democrats and pulled in notable support on Election Day, but came in double-digits behind the incumbents.
“Certainly, if you'd asked me this 12 months ago, if I was a betting person, I'd have said, ‘No, Fischer is going to win by 20 or 30 points, because all you do is look at the party registrations,’” Smith said.
Voter registration statistics, as of early August, show the number of Republican voters is nearly double that of Democrats in the state. At the same time, Democrats and nonpartisan voters together come close to matching the GOP's figure.
“I think the story out here is: ‘Holy cow, that's shaping up to be a competitive race,’” Smith said.
