The nonpartisan group Cook Political Report has shifted half a dozen House races toward Democrats and two toward Republicans, as Democrats see their financial advantage and enthusiasm rise after Vice President Harris replaced President Biden at the top of the ticket.
The changes do away with one toss-up race and add three new ones, for a combined total of 24 toss-up contests on the table this fall.
Democrats need to net only four seats to take the majority this fall, and they appear better positioned to do so after the shake-up in the presidential race, according to the analysis. Still, the fight for the lower chamber will come down to a few dozen seats where neither party has a clear advantage at this point.
"Two months out from Election Day, Democrats’ prospects for taking control of the House are looking considerably brighter than they did two months ago. Democratic candidates are no longer burdened by an unpopular incumbent president, free to run in a political environment where Republicans no longer have a clear enthusiasm advantage, and continue to fill their campaign coffers as Republicans’ fundraising lags," said Cook's Erin Covey in the analysis.
The race for incumbent Rep. Don Bacon’s (R) seat in Nebraska and Rep. Michelle Steel’s (R) seat in California have both moved from “lean Republican” to “toss up.”
Bacon represents an Omaha-based district that went to Biden by six points in 2020, and Cook notes polling for Harris is even more promising. In Steel's Orange County district, her Democratic challenger notably outraised her in the second quarter.
In Ohio, Democratic Rep. Marcy Kaptur’s race has strengthened from “toss up” to “lean Democrat.” Polls continue to show the incumbent ahead of her Republican challenger, and she's got the fundraising advantage.
Rep. Henry Cuellar’s (D) race in Texas has become a likely seat for Democrats, and Rep. Jared Mosckowitz’s (D) in Florida has shifted into “solid” blue territory. In Iowa, Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks’s race has softened from “likely” to “lean” Republican.
Cook also moved two races toward Republicans. Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola’s race in red Alaska shifted into a toss-up, after one Trump-backed Republican candidate dropped out of the race to let the party coalesce support behind just one GOP challenger.
The open seat in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District also moved from “lean” to “likely” Republican. Conservative firebrand Rep. Lauren Boebert (R), who holds the seat, is running this cycle for Colorado's 4th Congressional District instead.
After the shifts, Democrats are favored in 203 seats, and Republicans in 208, while the toss-ups are almost evenly split between Democrat- and Republican-held.
"We ultimately believe the most likely outcome is a single-digit gain for either party — though Democrats have more opportunities to pick up seats, since Republicans hold a few more Toss Up seats," Covey's analysis reads.
