Israelis took to the streets last weekend – including outside the prime minister’s residence in Jerusalem – in their latest show of anger at the government’s handling of the war. The protests were spurred by the news that Hamas had executed six of the hostages still being held in Gaza.
The following day, Israel’s national workers union announced a general strike. The strike, which the union said was necessary to “shake those who need to be shaken”, brought the country to a standstill as the busy Ben Gurion airport, schools and banks shut down.
The right-wing government of Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is certainly no stranger to demonstrations – they have been a common feature of life in Israel over the past year or so. But, according to Ran Porat of Melbourne’s Monash University, these latest protests mark a new low in the relationship between large segments of the Israeli public and their elected government.
Netanyahu has apologised to the families of the executed hostages, and said he was “begging for forgiveness”. But he has consistently undermined a deal to secure the release of the hostages, breaking numerous promises over the past few months. In Porat’s view, many in Israel feel abandoned by the government, and the relationship may now be beyond repair.
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Aside from bringing the remaining hostages home, there are other legitimate reasons why Israelis may want the war brought to a close. After several years of strong growth, the country is now experiencing a sharp economic slowdown.
According to economists Amr Saber Algarhi and Konstantinos Lagos of Sheffield Hallam University, up to 60,000 Israeli companies may have to close this year due to staff shortages, supply chain disruptions and waning business confidence.
With the cost of the war spiralling and a total victory over Hamas as elusive as ever, they argue that the situation will get worse before it gets better.
Read more: Israel: 11 months of war have battered the country's economy
Nonetheless, Netanyahu looks unlikely to change course. He condemned the recent protests, saying the demonstrations supported Hamas – a view shared by his powerful far-right finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich. And the strike was forced into a premature end following a court ruling that it was illegal.
Netanyahu may be encouraged by suggestions that he is slowly regaining popularity among right-wing voters. Porat says the prime minister probably has more to lose from making concessions to Hamas now than from striking a deal.
So, the war looks set to rumble on and perhaps even spread further afield. Last week, Israeli forces began carrying out raids in the occupied West Bank in a move intended to thwart terrorist attacks. The raids, which are now in their eighth day, have caused widespread destruction in the cities of Jenin and Tulkarm, as well as the Jenin refugee camp.
The incursions are in line with the Israeli government’s aim to eradicate Hamas – two militant commanders were killed as part of the operations. But as Leonie Fleischmann of City, University of London explains, the violence may serve to only prolong an already protracted conflict by encouraging resistance and militant defiance among Palestinians.
Read more: Israeli incursions into the West Bank risk fuelling Palestinian resistance rather than quelling it
Back in Gaza, the first phase of a series of “humanitarian pauses” to allow for the vaccination of children against polio has come to an end. The vaccination campaign, which aims to reach 640,000 children in the enclave, came about after a ten-month-old boy in the Gaza Strip was paralysed by poliovirus – the first such case in the region this century.
We asked Lee Sherry, a virologist at the University of Glasgow, how the virus emerged in the region after all this time. He says that it may be due to the nature of the oral poliovirus vaccine itself, which contains a weakened live poliovirus that can be shed by vaccinated people.
It’s not just an outbreak of polio in Gaza that experts are worried about. As the war continues, Sherry says other diseases such as measles, pneumonia and rotavirus also have the potential to emerge.
Read more: How did polio reemerge in Gaza after a quarter of a century? Q&A with a virologist
The vaccine rollout is a huge undertaking and campaign organisers in Gaza will be facing many difficulties. As Sarah Schiffling of the Hanken School of Economics and Liz Breen of the University of Bradford explain, the polio vaccine requires storage at extremely low temperatures before it reaches healthcare facilities. It is quickly destroyed if this “cold chain” is broken.
But the damage caused to roads, buildings and power supplies, as well as a persistent shortage of fuel, will have made the cold chain hard to maintain, they say. The decimation of Gaza’s health infrastructure and the mass displacement of people add more hurdles to ensuring complete vaccination coverage.
And yet, the first phase of the vaccination campaign has been a success. Unicef has described it as a “rare bright spot” in almost 11 months of war, with 189,000 children inoculated so far. The campaign will now shift to southern Gaza before moving further north.
Read more: Gaza: polio vaccination drive faces hurdles despite a pause in the conflict
The public health situation in Gaza does, however, remain desperate. Schiffling and Breen say that only a ceasefire will ultimately make it possible to improve the provision of clean water, sanitation and effective health services throughout the territory.
But, at least for now, a ceasefire is not a realistic scenario – even as the international community’s stance on the conflict slowly shifts.
On Monday, for instance, the UK joined countries including Canada, Spain and the Netherlands in suspending some arms sales to Israel. The decision came after review found that there was a “clear risk” the arms could be used in serious violations of international humanitarian law.
According to Julie Norman of University College London, the decision is unlikely to have any material impact on Israel’s military operations in Gaza. A key reason why is that the UK’s arms sales to Israel are dwarfed by the military assistance provided by the US.
Read more: UK suspends 30 arms export licences to Israel – but it won’t change much in the war in Gaza
One thing that will affect the situation in Gaza is the outcome of the US presidential election. The campaigns are in full swing and election day is now just two months away. And after an eventful few weeks, Kamala Harris looks to be in the driver’s seat.
In this piece, Thomas Cobb of Coventry University explains how the Republicans are using Harris’s home state of California as a way to attack her.
Whoever wins in November, this election will have a huge impact on how the conflict in Gaza continues to play out.
Jonathan Este is on holiday.
Read more: California v Florida: why home states are forming part of presidential campaign attacks
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