The last presidential debate sank Joe Biden’s political career and made Donald Trump (briefly) the prohibitive favorite in the race. Such a dramatic move was not likely, but it was still possible. Similarly, the upcoming match between Vice President Kamala Harris and Trump could move the race, but it’s unlikely to do so.
Of course, the wrong gaffe on the wrong issue might just be enough to shift enough votes to make one a real favorite before November.
Despite what the various predictors say, be they the gamblers, credible analysts or the laughable, the election is currently a toss-up. At the writing of this piece, Kamala Harris leads in the RealClearPolitics ballot test by just under 2 points, easily within the margin of error. In the battleground states, five are within 1 point or tied (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Pennsylvania) and two are within 1 and a half percent (Michigan and Wisconsin).
Leaving those seven states as undecided, Harris leads Trump 226-217 in Electoral College votes. Assigning each state according to their current lean puts Harris up 273-246, with Pennsylvania (19 votes) tied.
If the polls underestimate Trump, as they did in both 2016 and 2020, the former president could actually be in the lead.
A net swing of just 1.5 percent to Trump mean a Trump sweep of the Great Lakes states and a 312-226 win (less than 1 percent swing is an outright win). However, after being burned two races in a row, pollsters may have improved their sampling to accurately gauge Trump’s support. After all, in 2022 Republicans were overestimated by much of the polling and Trump’s hand-picked candidates in key Senate races were all defeated, except JD Vance — who did worse than every statewide GOP candidate in Ohio.
(Note: All polls underestimate final results due to a portion of voters remaining undecided until the last minute, with some not voting at all).
Two bad debaters walk into a room …
Both candidates have significant flaws performing live, and it is likely those flaws will surface for both on Sept. 10. The June debate was a big, if necessary, risk, as the possibility of a Biden meltdown loomed in the background. For Harris and Trump, we should not expect a similar disaster, but both still have it in them to lose the election in one night.
To say Harris has problems speaking off the cuff is a major understatement. Whether it’s bad quips, awkward laughs or the many varieties of word salad served up, Harris is simply not good on her own. That she and her team have stonewalled every interview request, save one, is telling — not to mention that her one post-nomination solo interview included her running mate taking some of the pressure off.
Her problems are compounded by a sudden nomination and sprint to the finish line. Harris has no time to practice and improve. Whether it is Team Biden petulantly keeping Harris on ice for most of the past three years or that Harris has a hard time improving, she is now stuck.
Every day she stonewalls the media compounds the problem. While her sycophants robotically defend her "don’t ask, don’t answer” campaign, it is not likely to go down well with the undecided voters who dislike both Harris and Trump. Avoiding questions brings questions and suspicions of its own.
And then there is her abrupt reinvention — or, more accurately, brazen abandonment of a vast swath of past policy positions. Harris’s new platform and constantly changing policy positions (with every day seemingly bringing something new) would be disqualifying in any other situation, but because the mainstream media so loathes Trump, they exceed her shamelessness by pushing Orwellian framing of her flip-flopping as “re-calibrating” or a “pivot” and her “secret power.”
But Harris won’t have a compliant media on stage to save her next Tuesday. The combination of awkwardness on stage and shifting positions leaves Harris in the uncomfortable position of needing to remember what she newly believes and defending her new platform and the path she has taken to get there.
A skillful political opponent could direct withering criticisms at Harris, perhaps even winning the election in a matter of hours. Fortunately for Harris, her opponent is Donald Trump.
Harris’s best asset: Trump
The odds of Trump conducting a calculated interrogation, slicing up Harris’s inconsistencies with surgical precision, are worse than the New England Patriots’ odds for winning the Super Bowl next year.
We have seen this show before, over and over. For Trump, it’s all about Trump. His act feels like the final wheezing seasons of “The Apprentice.” When he attacks, there is always a personal quality to it. He goes for quips and insult humor. When talking about himself, he channels his inner condo salesman. Everything is the greatest, the best, and on and on.
Trump is propped up by big issues. Strong majorities disapprove of the Biden administration on inflation and immigration, with inflation the top issue by far. In fact, President Biden is under water on all issues. Inflation may be easing, but it’s happening just in time for unemployment rising. Not a good combination. Combine this with an increasingly unstable international scene and it is the perfect storm for Trump to take advantage of.
And the debate stage is the perfect venue. With the public increasingly siloed into narrower and narrower niches for information, it is difficult for either campaign to reach disengaged independent and undecided voters. That’s why the nomination acceptance speeches and the debates are so vital. They are the events that all voters use for information and are unfiltered by a media increasingly distrusted by everyone.
For Trump, the prospects are not good. In the first debate, it was all about Biden imploding — even so, Trump’s numbers were not good. Trump failed to take advantage of Democratic disarray in his acceptance speech.
This debate could be the last chance for both candidates to communicate unfiltered to the independent and undecided voters they need.
Perhaps Trump scores just enough points to win without causing too much damage to himself while Harris grasps for words and forgets her new ideas. Perhaps Harris needles Trump enough to get him off his game, causing his rage to surface while she sticks to her memorized script.
The most likely outcome will be both sides scoring points, a bit of Trump rage and a few Harris gaffes — something for everyone to like and dislike.
Keith Naughton is co-founder of Silent Majority Strategies, a public and regulatory affairs consulting firm, and a former Pennsylvania political campaign consultant.
