The Bears and coach Matt Eberflus were on the brink almost immediately last season. All their talk about taking the next step, eying the playoffs and the rebuild being near completion quieted quickly after getting blown out at home by the Packers to kick off an 0-4 start.
It was alarming, and Eberflus was under fire constantly. His team looked totally unprepared against the Packers, totally unreliable against the Buccaneers and totally inept against the Chiefs before a total meltdown against the Broncos.
Few would’ve objected to firing Eberflus then, and his team spent the rest of the season chasing .500 and was never in reach of the playoffs.
He can’t let that happen again.
“Look at who makes it to the postseason — they start fast,” Eberflus said Wednesday. “The guys understand how important it is to start fast.”
Eberflus, who likes to break the season into quarters, put that in his players’ heads by pulling up stats on the first four games last season for the 14 playoff teams in May — four months ahead of their season opener Sunday against the Titans at Soldier Field.
None were below .500, and nine were 3-1 or 4-0. In a larger sample size over the past decade, 91% of teams that were sub-.500 at that stage missed the playoffs.
No excuse for ‘Flus this season, not even with a rookie as his starting quarterback in Caleb Williams. There’s no doubt general manager Ryan Poles delivered a playoff-caliber roster, and Williams has been widely regarded as the most NFL-ready prospect in years.
Eberflus was confident the team was better positioned for a strong start this season, but no coach would say otherwise.
He made valid points, however, including that the Bears had far fewer injuries and less missed time in training camp this season. It also helps that, while the team is relatively young, 17 of 22 projected starters are in at least their third season.
The Bears have largely been reconstructed over the last three years, and a lot looks stronger in surveying the skyline of power players in the organization.
Team president Kevin Warren and Poles command respect. Williams is a breath of fresh air. But Eberflus? Big questions linger about the coach with the 10-24 career record.
And maybe he has the answers. He’s the wildest of wild cards right now as betting websites have high odds on him for both first coach fired and Coach of the Year.
Eberflus undoubtedly understands that starting hot would put everyone at ease, including his bosses.
A scene in the final episode of “Hard Knocks” peeked in on Eberflus’ office during a meeting with Williams in which the coach stressed the importance of practices in preparation for the Titans.
“Start well,” Williams said from across the desk.
“Start well and start fast,” Eberflus concurred.
The Bears’ schedule lends itself to that, and they must take advantage.
They’re a four-point favorite over the Titans, who went 6-11 last season and were bad in pass defense. Over their first nine games, they draw five of the worst seven teams from last season and just two incumbent playoff teams in the Texans and Rams — both 10-7 wild cards — before closing the season with a treacherous path through all their NFC North games and some other challenges.
If things go well for the Bears, they could be 7-2, and 49 of 50 teams that started that hot or hotter over the past decade made the playoffs. But the success rate dropped to 71% for 6-3 teams and plunged to 37% at 5-4.
Eberflus talked a lot about almost-wins last season as the Bears blew double-digit leads in the fourth quarter three times, so he knows better than anybody it wouldn’t take much for 7-2 dreams to become a 4-5 reality. And the math on that probably adds up to him being out of a job.
