Whether you’re a talented prospect in his 20s or a veteran hanging on his his 30s, one baseball truth runs through all threads: this game is difficult to predict solely based on the past.
Let’s look at Lawrence Butler and Seth Brown, two players who have led Oakland’s surge to respectability in the second half of 2024. You could forgive any fan who wanted to give up on either when they hit their nadir.
Butler
“Law” has been so fantastic of late it’s hard to remember how poorly he played in his first go around with the A’s. Statistically, he was 4 for 29 (.138) in May, then 5 for 28 (.179) in June with 0 BB and 10 K. Putting the two months together Butler was 9 for 57 (.158) with 3 BB and 20 K.
As you watched Butler in May and June, you saw a hitter whose swing looked long and late and who, as a result, had to commit early to pitches meaning he was easily fooled into chasing bad off speed pitches. At times he appeared to resort to guessing pitch and/or location, usually guessing wrong because big league pitchers have a lot of options in their arsenals.
Luckily, Butler’s struggles were not a trend or a forecast, just a blip in the ebb and flow that is development. A trip to AAA calmed him down and gave him the reset he needed and he came back an absolute beast.
Statistically, beasthood looks like a .363/.408/.802 July with 10 HR in 24 games, followed by 8 more August HRs in a .266./301/.585 month. He is 6 for 13 to begin September.
Visually, you now see a batter who is “locked in” attacking strike but tracking and laying off a lot of bad balls he used to chase. What’s stunning about Butler’s production in the second half is that if anything he has been unlucky — his outs are often smoked, such as the 111.1 MPH ground out to 2B last night.
Sometimes the difference between a long swing and one just a tick shorter to the ball, or between an overanxious approach and one slightly more able to let the game come to him, can be a 180 degree change from being an easy out to an absolute terror.
And that’s why you don’t give up too quickly on struggling players if you believe in them — something we are all grappling with as we watch Zack Gelof lead all of MLB in K% swinging and missing like it’s going out of style.
Seth Brown
Brown’s at bats in the first half were hard to watch as he predictably waved at the same changeup he couldn’t track his rookie season. After batting .201 for April and May, Brown hit rock bottom in June going 4 for 31 (.129) without a HR, striking out 13 times.
As he was approaching his 32nd birthday, the A’s were willing to move on and served him what turned out to be a wake-up call: Brown was DFA but stayed in the organization and went to AAA.
Brown’s AAA stint wasn’t so much to get his hands or his timing right. It was to get his head right. Seth had fallen into the trap of TMI, so bogged down in analytics and video that he forgot how to just “grip it and rip it” letting his natural ability and experience take over.
And take over it has. Brown’s .304/.360/.609 July begat a .308/.375/.462 August. Not only has he started September 5 for 11, his HR last night tied the game and his single in the 9th won it. He has been, simply put, beast-tastic.
Ebb, Flow, Ebb.....
Of course, development and progress can go in both directions. Gelof looked like a world beater until he couldn’t make contact with anything and right now the “unstoppable” Jacob Wilson is discovering that big league pitchers can reliably jam him in the strike zone in a way minor league pitchers clearly couldn’t execute with that level of consistency.
What 2025 will look like for Butler, for Brown, for Gelof, for Wilson, and for dozens of other players, is truly anybody’s guess. But if you are watching a player’s performance at any moment, and extrapolating from that what you can expect tomorrow? You might just be surprised.
Your guesses on what 2025 holds for these 4 A’s? What about the equally enigmatic Shea Langeliers and Tyler Soderstrom? Speak now and you could look like a genius later! Or not.
