How the Guardians Can Secure a Central Division Title and a Number Two Seed in the AL

Here’s the path

The Guardians currently have the lead in the American League Central and for the second seed in the American League. What do they need to do in the remaining schedule to hang on to that lead?

To begin, I’d like to acknowledge that this is baseball and weird things happen all the time. The Royals, due to some unfortunate injury regression, are falling out of the race for the AL Central title, but that could all change in the time ahead. Heck, even the Mariners could get super hot and overtake the Astros, or the Tigers could put together a miraculous September run. But, the odds are that the Guardians will need to hold off the Minnesota Twins and Houston Astros in order to both win the American League Central and at least a second seed in the American League playoffs.

I know some folks would actually prefer the Guardians play in the wildcard round, but, personally, even despite some concerns of bye-rust, I don’t want my favorite team to HAVE to win a three-game series. Too much luck factors into a FIVE-game series, let alone a three-gamer. So, I want the Guardians to win a division title and I want them to hang on to the second seed in the playoffs.

In order for Cleveland to accomplish these goals, I have looked at their remaining schedule and tried to give a realistic view of how they can finish the end of the year if they play like the team they have been, overall, in 2024. I have tried to do the same for the Twins and for the Astros. As you’ll soon see, the margin for error is slim. I hope these schedules will provide a good page for you to bookmark to return to as you see how these three teams perform vs. the expectations listed for each below. Please do not view these as my personal predictions, as I would sooner predict the day it will first snow this winter than the record of any baseball team over 25 games. This is simply how things will most likely play out if these three teams play according to the abilities they have shown so far this season.

Guardians’ Remaining Schedule:

9/4 - At Royals (1 loss)

9/6-9/8 - At Dodgers (1 win, 2 losses)

9/9-9/11 - At White Sox (3 wins, 0 losses)

9/12-9/15 - Home vs. Rays (2 wins, 2 losses)

9/16-9/19 - Home vs Twins (2 wins, 2 losses)

9/20-9/22 - At Cardinals (1 win, 2 losses)

9/24-9/25 - Home vs. Reds (1 win, 1 loss)

9/27-9/29 - Home vs. Astros (2 wins, 1 loss)

Remaining record - 12 wins, 11 losses. Final record: 92-70

Twins’ remaining schedule:

9/4-9/5 - At Rays (1 win, 1 loss)

9/6-9/8 - At Royals (2 wins, 1 loss)

9/9-9/11 - Home vs. Angels (2 wins, 1 loss)

9/13-9/15 - Home vs. Reds (2 wins, 1 loss)

9/16-9/19 - At Guardians (2 wins, 2 losses)

9/20-9/22 - At Red Sox (2 wins, 1 loss)

9/24-9/26 - Home vs. Marlins (3 wins, 0 losses)

9/27-9/29 - Home vs. Orioles (2 wins, 1 loss)

Remaining Record - 16 wins, 8 losses. Final record: 91-71

Astros remaining schedule:

9/4-9/5 - At Reds (2 wins, 0 losses)

9/6-9/8 - Home vs. Diamondbacks (1 win, 2 losses)

9/10-9/12 - Home vs. Athletics (3 wins, 0 losses)

9/13-9/15 - At Angels (2 wins, 1 loss)

9/16-9/18 - At Padres (1 win, 2 losses)

9/19-9/22 - Home vs. Angels (3 wins, 1 loss)

9/23-9/25 - Home vs. Mariners (2 wins, 1 loss)

9/27-9/29 - At Guardians (1 win, 2 losses)

Remaining record: 15 wins, 9 losses. Final record: 90-72

So, the Guardians have the most difficult remaining schedule between these three teams, but it’s doable. You’ll note that I was pessimistic about the Cardinals’ series; one can easily imagine the Guardians winning two of those three. But, I was also optimistic about a home series against the Astros. It’s very possible the second seed may rely on Cleveland finding a way to win that tough last three-gamer against Houston, and the division could ride on finding a way to at least split the last four game set vs. Minnesota.

The Guardians, themselves, will simply focus on winning the game in front of them, and winning series. If they can manage to win and split series the rest of the way, the odds will be immensely in their favor that they will secure a division win (while having the tiebreaker against the Twins) and a second seed. I would circle the Reds and Astros series as the most likely games in which Cleveland could clinch the division, while they should have a wildcard spot wrapped up as early as the home series vs. the Twins or the road series vs. the Cardinals if things fall into place.

I have tickets for Saturday, September 28th, and I’m hoping some kind of exciting clinch will happen then. But, I will also not be upset if they go on a hot stretch and put things to bed early. Go Guardians!