Finding value in the freshman class for your fantasy football roster
The 2024 NFL season kicks off in less than a week! Where did the summer go? If you’ve got fantasy drafts coming up, keep reading. Even if you don’t, you should keep reading too!
Last week, I wrote about the 2024 rookie wide receiver class, which I believe has a chance to be special right away. In that piece, I discussed how expectations for rookie receivers in fantasy have changed in the last two decades. Today I’m going to repeat that exercise with the 2024 rookie quarterback class. The expectations for first-year QBs have changed too, for some of the same reasons. They’re getting a chance to play a lot more, a lot sooner. But unlike with rookie receivers, it’s uncommon for a rookie QB to put up a big fantasy season.
Before we go further, you can find all of my preseason fantasy content, including rankings, players to target and avoid, sleepers, draft tips, and more, at SBNation sister site Big Blue View’s Fantasy Football Hub.
It used to be the case that rookie QBs almost never started immediately, even though it was typical for them to play a full four years of college ball. If we go back to the famed QB class of 1983, which featured six QBs going in the first round including Hall of Famers John Elway, Jim Kelly, and Dan Marino, none of those six were opening day NFL starters as rookies, and the group only started a total of 25 games during the 1983 season, most of which was Elway and Marino (Kelly went to the U.S.F.L.). It’s the hardest position in sports, and the adjustment from the run-heavy college game to the more balanced and complex pro game, and to the speed of NFL defenders, was a big one.
It’s still a big adjustment, even with the college game being more pass-heavy. But that hasn’t stopped teams from throwing rookie QBs to the wolves, rather than having them learn by watching and carrying a clipboard, as Patrick Mahomes did in 2017. Eight QBs were taken inside the top 15 picks from 2021-2023, and six of them were opening day starters as rookies, with a seventh (Justin Fields) starting by week 3. In 2023, Colts rookie Anthony Richardson was the opening day starter, despite being only 21, and having attempted less than 400 passes in his college career. I’ve noticed it when I look in the mirror—things really do change across 40 years.
QBs are being rushed into action in part because of economics. The rookie pay scale creates a situation where QBs are a bargain for a few years, and teams are motivated to try to quickly build a winner while their (hopefully) franchise QB is on a cheap deal. The financial advantage that the Texans have with instant star C.J. Stroud on a rookie contract can’t be overstated.
But Stroud’s surprising success last year is an exception in a larger tale of caution. By definition, teams drafting in the first 10 picks of an NFL draft usually aren’t good. One or all of these typically apply: bad skill position players, a bad offensive line, and/or a bad coaching and support situation. Cut to Trevor Lawrence nodding his head slowly. Bryce Young hears me, too. Teams are awarded high draft picks for a reason. QBs are being pushed to the top of NFL draft boards and are starting sooner, but that doesn’t make them good players right off the bat, either in real life or for what we care about, fantasy football. Most rookie QBs don’t have the kind of season Stroud just had. From 2018-2023, 18 QBs were taken in the top 15 picks of the NFL draft. Of those, only three—Kyler Murray (QB5, 2019), Justin Herbert (QB9, 2020), and Stroud (QB9, 2023)—finished inside the top 15 at the position. Most rookie QBs struggle. Jets fans know what I’m talking about; they’ve watched this horror movie twice in the last six seasons.
But that history doesn’t mean we should ignore rookie QBs in fantasy. Not only was Stroud a top 10 play last year, but Anthony Richardson was off to a torrid start (bettering 20 fantasy points per game) before his season ended very early. QBs who are dual threats are especially enticing, even as rookies.
The story of Round 1 of the 2024 NFL Draft was offense. The first 14 picks were all offensive players (a record), and that included six QBs in the first twelve picks (also a record), including the top three picks. I’ve ranked the QBs in the order they appear on my draft board. Average draft position (ADP) is as of August 29. Note that my analysis assumes redraft only (with no keepers), a 1-QB format, and four points per passing TD. In dynasty or keeper formats, you’re looking at these players very differently. Also, I’ll leave J.J. McCarthy (10th overall pick, Vikings) out of the discussion, since he’s going to miss the entire season with a knee injury. Bummer. We’ll revisit J.J. next summer.
Daniels has been flying up draft boards all summer, and with good reason. QBs that offer his caliber of running ability are rare, and in fantasy, they’re gold. Wrong or right, you get three times as many points for a rushing yard as a passing yard, and you also get 33% more points for a rushing TD than a passing TD. Those extra points add up quickly, and it’s really hard for a non-running QB to finish the season as a top-5 QB. On his way to the Heisman Trophy last year, Daniels put up insane numbers. He threw for 40 TDs and amassed more than 1,100 rushing yards and 10 rushing TDs. He did all of that in just 12 games, as L.S.U.’s defense struggled all year. Those aren’t misprints. No, I don’t expect him to put up numbers like that this season. But the rushing floor pretty much assures a top-12 finish, if he can stay healthy. If you don’t believe me, look at what Justin Fields did two years ago.
The situation in Washington isn’t perfect (they took Daniels with the second overall pick, after all), but it’s good enough. They have a bad defense and should be chasing points regularly, and there are decent skill position players around him. Kliff Kingsbury as the OC is also a plus, given his history of working with mobile QBs. I have Daniels ranked as QB11 and I’m starting to think even that’s a little too low. I love the solid floor and high ceiling you’re getting at his 8th or 9th round draft price. If you do draft Daniels, I highly recommend making sure you get a competent backup a couple of rounds later—someone like Matt Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, or Justin Herbert should do. Daniels runs with abandon and staying healthy for 17 games isn’t a given. Plus, if he struggles out of the gate, you’ll want a good pivot. I’m very excited about Daniels for this year, and I’m not alone.
VERDICT: BUY at or before ADP. Pay up if you need to.
I know why Williams was taken as the #1 overall pick, a spot ahead of Daniels, but I can’t figure out why Williams is going ahead of Daniels in fantasy drafts. My board has them flipped, with Williams as the QB17 which is well below market. I wonder if his ADP is simply a product of all those success-starved Bears fans over drafting him. Maybe. If you have a couple of deep dish pizza guys in your league, prepare to miss on Williams unless you reach. I’m not down on Williams. Or Chicago (I was born there—true story). I just don’t have him inside my top 12-14, meaning I don’t have him as a QB1. Not yet anyway, and that’s partly because there are so many very good and proven QBs out there. He does have the rare distinction of being a #1 overall pick who’s going into a very good situation. Chicago boasts a solid line that returns four starters, an excellent trio of wide receivers offering a variety of skillsets, plus good tight ends and backs. Williams is an exciting playmaker who can extend plays and who brings some sneaky rushing upside. I’m fine with him as a QB2 in a Superflex or as a low-end starter in a larger league, and I think he could easily return value at ADP. But I can’t put him ahead of Daniels, and for me it’s not that close.
VERDICT: PASS at ADP, but BUY if you can get a bargain a round or so later.
There’s a huge drop-off in the rookie QBs after Daniels and Williams. By ADP, the drop is roller coaster-like, at about seven rounds. Nix, who went to the Broncos with the 12th pick, was a bit of a polarizing prospect and the consensus view was that Denver reached for him in the first half of Round 1. With five QBs already off the board and the Raiders right behind them, maybe they felt they had no choice. Nix is an older prospect (24) who set the NCAA record last season at Oregon by completing 77.45% of his passes. He’s also a good runner. Reach or not, he’s opening the season as Denver’s starter, and his ADP has crept up throughout the summer, passing veterans like Daniel Jones and Derek Carr in the process. The hope here is that Sean Payton can work his magic with Nix and turn him into a discount version of Drew Brees—a high percentage thrower who can move the chains with short, accurate passes and scamper for first downs and yards when he needs to. The supporting cast isn’t great, but there are good pass-catching backs which should help with the screen game. Nix has some appeal in Superflex leagues as a lower-end QB2 or third QB. In 1-QB leagues he mostly won’t get drafted, but he could be a good Waiver Wire play if he starts hot.
VERDICT: Consider him at ADP in Superflex, monitor on Waiver Wire elsewhere.
Maye was taken by the Patriots with the third overall pick. He’s a younger player (21) who brings a nice skillset, with very good rushing upside (1,200-plus rushing yards and 16 rushing TDs over his final two seasons at North Carolina), to go with a big arm. The Patriots named Jacoby Brissett the Week 1 starter, and that’s probably a good thing. This is one of those cases where starting a rookie right away feels like a very bad idea. New England might have the worst offensive line in the league, and it also has one of the league’s least experienced receiver groups, plus a rookie Head Coach. This is a team that might only win a handful of games this season. Maye is the future, and bringing him along slowly (and keeping him from getting killed) makes a lot of sense. For fantasy, he could emerge as a viable second QB in a Superflex, once he gets the chance to play. I like drafting three QBs in that format, and can’t fault you if you take him as your third guy.
VERDICT: Consider as a third QB/stash in a Superflex, otherwise, Waiver Wire watch list.
Penix will start the season on the Waiver Wire in almost all leagues. Like Nix, he’s an older prospect at age 24. He had four season-ending injuries in college, so there’s some lingering risk. The Falcons threw the biggest curveball of the first round of the 2024 draft when they selected Penix with the 8th overall pick. He’s talented and had a monster final year at Washington, but barring an injury to Kirk Cousins, who the Falcons opened the vault for a few months BEFORE the draft, it’s hard to see him getting much run as a rookie. I wonder if Spencer Rattler, who was taken in the 5th round (but was the next QB taken after Nix) and is competing for the backup job in New Orleans, will see action sooner than Penix.
VERDICT: Leave him for the Waiver Wire (Rattler too).
That’s the skinny on the rookie QBs. Good luck with your fantasy drafts and teams, and be sure to look for my weekly in-season fantasy content starting next week both here and at sister site Big Blue View.
