Exchange rate pass-through for European Union countries

by Duc Hong Vo, Nam Thanh Vu

Exchange rate pass-through (ERPT) represents a degree to which changes in nominal exchange rates are transmitted into domestic prices. European Union (EU) countries have experienced the unprecedented inflationary pressure due to high geopolitical risk events. As such, understanding the ERPT plays a crucial role. This study provides a comprehensive and up-to-date analysis of ERPT to import prices for 16 EU countries from January 2006 to December 2022. Using the panel autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model, our findings confirm the linear, rather than nonlinear, ERPT pattern characterized by a diminishing trend over time in the EU countries. However, the degree of pass-through varies depending on country characteristics. Specifically, countries that are highly dependent on imports experience a larger ERPT. Furthermore, the degree of pass-through to import prices is more significant and persistent during periods of high uncertainty. These findings are robust across various robust analyses including sub periods. Our findings provide that help policymakers evaluate the trade-offs between exchange rate risks and macroeconomic stability during times of high uncertainty.