How do we win the most votes? That question will animate every strategic decision made through November by former President Donald Trump, Vice President Kamala Harris and candidates down the ballot.
Americans know that both parties have drifted toward the extremes. But how would the remainder of the election look if, instead of catering to base voters, both parties ran campaigns aimed squarely at the voters who sit closer to the middle?
As former lawmakers who earned reputations as moderates willing to stand up to our respective parties, we believe such a campaign would pay huge dividends for the country.
Our bipartisan organization recently conducted a nationwide poll of nearly 2,000 voters — including more than 600 swing voters — most of whom plan to vote in November, and a series of swing voter focus groups. Both showcase surprising results.
Most importantly, these swing voters feel ignored by politicians. A shocking 87 percent of respondents strongly or somewhat agreed with the statement: “Congress doesn’t listen to people like me.” These voters feel largely alienated from both parties and fatigued by divisive political discourse.
These swing voters aren’t boxed in by partisan allegiance. More than 80 percent saying they don’t care which party presents an idea if the idea is a good one (take note, partisans who reject any proposals offered by the opposition). In fact, our focus groups demonstrated that blanket distrust of both political parties has eclipsed any policy differences as the strongest reaction to the idea of the parties. Voters recognize that both parties now speak to the extremes.
What did we learn that could shape a campaign focused on winning over swing voters who will decide competitive House and Senate races and every presidential battleground state?
Democratic leaders may not want to hear it, but issues of affordability and border security top the issues important to swing voters. Ninety percent say that rising prices are continuing to get worse, and 65 percent support shutting down America’s southern border until migrant crossings can be controlled.
These voters report feeling insecure, both economically and physically. Democrats ignore these issues or demonize those who prioritize them at our peril. When next faced with activists’ calls to “defund the police,” Democrats should also know that these voters feel crime is getting worse. They believe Democrats want to punish crime less harshly than Republicans, and they trust their local police.
And while this particular finding is awkward to share for a member of the House Select Committee on the January 6 U.S. Capitol Attack, who understands the threats facing our democracy, few swing voters express such concerns. Rather, they feel that the government is no longer responsive to their needs, perhaps showing one way to reinvigorate confidence in our democracy: Respond directly to the concerns of these Americans.
For Republican leaders, it may be a tough pill to swallow — and awkward to share as a co-author of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act — but proceed with caution when pursuing big tax cuts. Most swing voters instinctively believe such proposals benefit mainly the wealthiest Americans, with 67 percent believing that CEOs and corporate leaders pay less than their fair share of taxes.
Demonizing immigrants is a loser with swing voters, as north of 60 percent of these voters understand that America’s economy relies in part on immigrant and migrant workers. Two-thirds of swing voters support pathways to earned citizenship for people brought to America illegally as children. In focus groups, these voters also reject the idea that immigration leads to more crime.
While some of our Republican former colleagues wish to repeal the Inflation Reduction Act — a law focused on energy and climate policy — our poll found close to two-thirds of swing voters support addressing climate change in agreements with other nations. This comes as a growing number of congressional Republicans sound similar caution about repeal efforts.
And 64 percent of these election-deciders reject the idea of the U.S. reducing its presence overseas and ceding ground to foreign adversaries like Russia and China. Rather, they want to see stable leadership in America’s foreign policy.
Ultimately, it’s up to each political party: Do we want to keep catering to the extremes and alienating larger shares of Americans, further eroding confidence in our democracy? Or will one or even both parties seize the mantle of common-sense moderation and begin fighting for the center?
Stephanie Murphy represented Florida’s 7th District from 2017 to 2023. Carlos Curbelo represented Florida’s 26th District from 2015 to 2019. They now lead the Center Aisle Coalition.
