BUFFALO BILLS (12-7)
EXPECTATIONS: The good news is the Buffalo Bills have 28-year-old quarterback Josh Allen entering his prime. The questions for the four-time defending AFC East champions begin at almost every other position. This has the makings of a reset year after general manager Brandon Beane hit pause on his free-spending ways by focusing on getting his bloated payroll in order by going younger — and cheaper. The Bills’ two top receiving threats are gone, with Stefon Diggs traded to Houston and Gabe Davis’ departure in free agency. Their veteran secondary, together since 2017, has been disbanded. Respected center Mitch Morse is among six of eight captains not returning. Meantime, injuries have become an issue with starting linebacker Matt Milano out indefinitely and not expected back until December at the earliest with a torn bicep. The safety position is so unsettled by injury, the Bills were required to sign veterans Kareem Jackson and Terrell Burgess on consecutive days in training camp. The losses place a premium on a group of 45-plus newcomers — mid-priced free agents and rookies — to contribute immediately. Sturdy as Allen is, it might be too much to ask the seventh-year starter to carry Buffalo to a sixth straight playoff berth.
NEW FACES: Defensive coordinator Bobby Babich, WRs Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, and rookie Keon Coleman, safeties Mike Edwards and rookie Cole Bishop, DE Dawuane Smoot, rookie DT DeWayne Carter, LB Nicholas Morrow.
KEY LOSSES: WRs Diggs and Davis, C Morse, safeties Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde, CBs Tre’Davious White and Siran Neal, DE Leonard Floyd, DTs Jordan Phillips, Linval Joseph and Tim Settle, LB Tyrel Dodson.
STRENGTHS: Aside from Allen, the Bills offense returns a James Cook-led running attack that provided Buffalo balance over the second half of last season, and coinciding with Joe Brady taking over as coordinator following Ken Dorsey’s dismissal. Though Khalil Shakir is Buffalo’s only receiver to catch a pass from Allen, the Bills return a tight end tandem of Dawson Knox and Dalton Kincaid, who set a franchise record for his position with 73 catches. Linebacker Terrel Bernard emerged as a key contributor in his first season as starter.
WEAKNESSES: A patchwork and young secondary that lacks the leadership and experience Poyer and Hyde provided in the past. Milano’s injury leaves Buffalo counting on second-year player Dorian Williams to fill the spot in the defense’s two-LB system. A receiver group that lacks a bona fide threat, and being asked to replace the void left by Diggs, who topped 100 catches and 1,100 yards in each of his four seasons in Buffalo.
CAMP DEVELOPMENT: Injuries muddied the competition for various jobs, especially at safety where Edwards and Bishop missed a majority of camp. Edwards, a projected starter upon being signed in March, is in jeopardy of not making the cut after also missing most of spring practices with a shoulder injury. Receivers Samuel (turf toe) and Valdes-Scantling’s (neck) availability to open the season is in question with both listed week to week. Coleman, Buffalo’s top draft pick, found immediate chemistry with Allen and is projected to be a Week 1 starter.
FANTASY PLAYER TO WATCH: Shakir is coming off a promising second season in which he emerged as one of Allen’s go-to options to close last season in finishing with 39 catches for 611 yards and two touchdowns. Shakir’s ability to play each receiver position and familiarity with Allen should lead to him playing a central role in Buffalo’s passing attack.
BetMGM Sportsbook: Win Super Bowl: 15-1. Over/under wins: 10 1/2.
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