Elephant Rumblings: Sizing up Mason Miller’s AL ROY prospects

MLB news roundup

Happy Wednesday, Athletics Nation!

If the season ended today, Brent Rooker would get my vote for A’s MVP of 2024. But I suspect most of us would agree that no other Athletic is dominating on the field the way Mason Miller has throughout his rookie campaign.

Miller is closing in on the A’s record for most saves as a rookie. Keep in mind that the stat was officially created in 1969.

With yesterday’s save, Mason now has 22, just four short of the mark with about a month left in the season. How likely is he to break the record? Let’s tally up his saves by month to aid our assessment.

Mason Miller, 2024 Saves by Month:

• April: 8
• May: 3
• June: 3
• July: 1
• August: 7

Surprisingly, over two-thirds of Miller’s saves were recorded in April and August—and the latter total may increase. Recall that Miller’s first save came on April 9, he was out the first week of August (and the last week of July), and further that four games remain in August. If The Reaper can get 8 saves through three weeks as he did early in the season, he can potentially hit double digits through four weeks. Thus, the franchise record for rookies is definitely within reach but not guaranteed. My Monopoly money is on the over.

So how good a shot does Miller have at winning AL Rookie of the Year? Jim Bowden at The Athletic has some fresh AL rookie rankings that are instructive on this question. Bowden suggests there are five contenders for the honor, and comparing them to Miller, we run into the “quantity” problem that often prevents relievers from getting the big awards.

Miller is clearly the most dominant AL rookie when he’s in the game. But quantity does matter, and Yankees starter Luis Gil had 2.9 bWAR to Miller’s 2.4 coming into Tuesday, even though Mason packs far more punch per inning as evidenced by an ERA+ of 222 that far surpasses Gil’s mark of 123. Gil has pitched well over twice as many innings this season.

This quality vs. quantity problem also applies when comparing Miller to the everyday position players on Bowden’s list. However, even if a WARthodox view ends up prevailing in AL ROY voting, whether or not bWAR or fWAR is used could change the outcome: Miller and Gil are both currently at 2.2 WAR per Fangraphs, excluding Miller’s less-than-perfect appearance yesterday.

In conclusion, I think it’s tough to predict whether Mason will get a ROY trophy. As a reliever, he faces the disadvantage of less playing time compared to a starting pitcher or everyday position player. But the level of dominance Miller is exhibiting is truly special, so he’s got my Monopoly vote.

A’s Coverage:

• Athletics take game one from the Reds, 5-4
• A’s roster moves: Wilson returns, Toro DFA’d
• Ranking the top 10 AL rookies — with 5 in the mix in tight Rookie of the Year race ($)
• Athletics Claim Tristan Gray
• A’s Promoting Another Top Pick in 2024 Draft

MLB News & Interest:

• MLB Power Rankings: Diamondbacks strike, Rangers struggle; each team’s Big August Move
• Lucas Erceg Thriving with Kansas City Royals
• Latest On Roki Sasaki’s Potential Posting
• Red Sox To Select Rich Hill
• Giants To Place Jordan Hicks On Injured List
• Astros, Jason Heyward Agree To Deal
• Giants Place Robbie Ray On Injured List
• Today in Baseball History

Best of X:

Roster moves.

Get ready for overflow conditions at the last A’s game in Oakland.

Tommy’s first dinger.

Let’s see Shohei do this!

Ballin’!