With the clock ticking down on a Friday deadline for European Union capitals to offer nominees for von der Leyen's 26-person team, 16 of the 21 names known so far are men.
That is despite the fact the commission chief asked states explicitly, following her re-election in July, to give her a choice of one male and one female candidate.
Not a single country has done so -- and as it stands, women may occupy as few as six posts in the next EU executive, including von der Leyen herself and the nominee for foreign policy chief, Estonia's outgoing leader Kaja Kallas.
The European Women's Lobby (EWL), an umbrella group working toward gender equality in the bloc, said the situation was indicative of an "old boys' club" mindset, calling it "beyond embarrassing".
"If member states truly believe only men are fit for these roles or that there are no qualified women in their countries, they're not just out of touch -- they're delusional," said the group's spokesperson Mirta Baselovic.
Lina Galvez, chair of the European Parliament committee on gender equality, likewise said the numbers suggested a clear lack of "political will" from member states that sent a "very bad signal, especially to younger women and girls".
At the root of the situation is a power play between von der Leyen and European capitals that may well back goals like gender parity on paper, but in practice resist having their hands tied in any way.
"As member states we expect von der Leyen to strive for gender parity," said an EU diplomat on condition of anonymity. "At the same time, we also believe that it is up to us to propose the commissioner we prefer."
"Unfortunately those two desires don't seem to align this time around."
Irish Prime Minister Simon Harris said the quiet part out loud when he unveiled his candidate -- a man -- reminding the EU chief that the bloc's treaties require only one nominee.
'Bare minimum'
Von der Leyen made gender equality a priority of her first term, and between them she, Kallas and European Parliament president Roberta Metsola clinched an unprecedented three of four top EU jobs following June elections -- with European Council chief Antonio Costa rounding out the ranks.
But short of a radical shakeup, her ambition for a gender-balanced commission -- which steers EU policy on issues of trade to climate and migration -- already looks dead in the water.
So what options does von der Leyen have, once the full lineup is in?
Option one, according to EU law professor Alberto Alemanno, is to accept the list, divvy up the various portfolios and let the nominees face the music in parliamentary hearings planned for September and October.
Bearing in mind, he said, that "parliament won't pull its punches" with an overwhelmingly male candidate list.
"There's a risk that instead of voting down four or five commissioners, they might vote against half of them," Alemanno told AFP.
To avoid such a scenario, Alemanno said the commission chief would be within her rights to send states back to the drawing board.
"From a legal standpoint, there is no question she has the authority," he said. "The question is more a political one -- whether she will choose to exercise that prerogative."
"If she puts her foot down now, she avoids finding herself in a position of weakness," he said. "And it's a chance to assert her independence."
Option three would be a half-way solution where von der Leyen turns down this or that male candidate -- using her power to dish out plum portfolios as leverage with individual member states.
The EWL said it was counting on the commission chief to "stand firm", calling it her "prerogative and responsibility to ensure that the EU leadership reflects the diversity of its population".
"This isn't a radical ask -- it's the bare minimum," its spokesperson said.
Pressed on the point, the lead commission spokesman said the EU chief "stands by her conviction that in the modern world, we need to have as many women as possible in positions of responsibility".
"She is doing everything in her power in order to ensure that we have a well-balanced college with people who are competent for the role of commissioner, and a college that will include as many women as possible," Eric Mamer told reporters Tuesday.
