In 2015, “Game of Thrones” set a record for winning the most Primetime Emmy Awards for a drama series in a single year, with 12. The HBO juggernaut was able to repeat that feat in 2016 and 2019, but was never able to win more than a dozen trophies in one season. This year, a brand new series from FX looks poised to break that record, as “Shōgun” leads all contenders with 25 nominations.
“Shōgun,” based on James Clavell’s bestselling novel, is set in Japan in the year 1600, at the dawn of a century-defining civil war. Lord Yoshii Toranaga (Hiroyuki Sanada) is fighting for his life as his enemies on the Council of Regents unite against him, when a mysterious European ship is found marooned in a nearby fishing village. The FX series created by Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks premiered on February 27, 2024 and the season finale aired April 23, 2024. It is currently available to stream on Hulu.
Below we lay out “Shōgun’s” path to history by winning at least 13 awards at the 2024 Emmys.
It’s hard to imagine “Shōgun” making history without taking home the biggest prize of the night. Our odds show it would take a massive upset for them to lose here, with nearly 18x as many Gold Derby users predicting “Shōgun” for Best Drama Series than second-place “The Crown.”
Anna Sawai is the current front-runner to win Best Drama Actress for playing Toda Mariko. She leads our odds among Emmy Experts, Editors, Top 24 and All-Star prognosticators. Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”) is in a distant second place followed by Jennifer Aniston (“The Morning Show”).
Hiroyuki Sanada leads our odds to win Best Drama Actor for playing Lord Yoshii Toranaga. Like Sawai, he leads among Emmy Experts, Editors, Top 24 and All-Star prognosticators. His closest competitors are Oscar winner Gary Oldman (“Slow Horses”) and Emmy winner Donald Glover (“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”).
While “Shōgun” has two entrants in this category, both are considered vulnerable to lose Best Drama Supporting Actor to 2020 champ Billy Crudup (“The Morning Show”). Tadanobu Asano is in the best position to pull off an upset here, ranked second and holding support from five Experts. Takehiro Hira is considered much less likely to win, currently ranked fifth. They play Kashigi Yabushige and Ishido Kazunari, respectively.
The most highly-praised installment of “Shōgun” is its penultimate episode, “Crimson Sky,” directed by Frederick E.O. Toye. This ninth episode from Season 1 aired April 16, 2024 and is projected to win the Emmy for Best Drama Directing. Our odds have it way out front over second-place “Sleep, Dearie Sleep” from “The Crown” and third-place “First Date” from “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.”
SEE Tadanobu Asano (‘Shogun’): The scheming Yabushige ‘doesn’t notice that he’s bad’
Like directing, “Crimson Sky” is expected to bring home another “Shōgun” win for Best Drama Writing. The script is by Rachel Kondo and Caillin Puente, who are both first-time nominees this year. Also in the running is the series premiere, “Anjin,” written by Rachel Kondo and Justin Marks, which currently ranks fourth in our odds.
Veteran actor Nestor Carbonell is predicted to win Best Drama Guest Actor for playing Spanish sailor Vasco Rodrigues in the series premiere, “Anjin.” He holds a solid lead in our odds over John Turturro (“Mr. and Mrs. Smith”) and Jonathan Pryce (“Slow Horses”). This is Carbonell’s first Emmy nomination.
The Emmy for Main Title Design can be a little unpredictable, sometimes going to shows that aren’t real contenders in other categories (think “The Good Lord Bird’s” win in 2021 or “Godfather of Harlem” in 2020). Still, this is expected to be another number for “Shōgun,” which has stiff competition from “Fallout” and “Lessons in Chemistry.” “Shōgun” nominees here are Nadia Tzuo, creative director; Mike Zeng and Ilya Tselyutin, designers; Alex Silver, Lee Buckley and Evan Larimore, animators.
SEE Nestor Carbonell (‘Shōgun’): ‘You don’t come across roles like this very often’
The Emmys haven’t awarded the same show Best Main Title Design and Best Main Title Theme Music since “Stranger Things” in 2017, but “Shōgun” is expected to pull off the rare double this year. It has winning odds over “Lessons in Chemistry” in second place and “Palm Royale” in third. “Shōgun” nominees here are Nick Chuba, Leopold Ross and two-time Oscar winner Atticus Ross (“The Social Network” and “Soul”).
The same “Shōgun” trio nominated for the main title theme music are expected to earn a second win for Best Music for a Series. Chuba, Ross and Ross are nominated again here for their original score, leading our odds over their closest competitors from “The Crown,” “Only Murders in the Building” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.”
The Emmy for Best Drama Casting often coincides with the winner for Best Drama Series, so it’s no surprise “Shōgun” is out front to win here over its closest rivals “The Crown” and “Mr. and Mrs. Smith.” Representing the FX drama in this category are casting directors Laura Schiff and Carrie Audino, and location casting directors Kei Kawamura, Maureen Webb and Colleen Bolton.
SEE Emmy nominee Takehiro Hira (‘Shōgun’) wants to get to ‘the underneath layer’ of Lord Ishido
The 11 categories above are all in our predictions center at Gold Derby, therefore showing their current odds to win. If “Shōgun” performs as expected and wins 10 of those awards, it will be on track to surpass “Game of Thrones” with just three more awards from the categories not represented here. Below are the other categories for which “Shōgun” has at least one nomination.
Best Cinematography for a Series (One Hour)
Best Editing for a Drama Series
Best Period Costumes
Best Period or Fantasy/Sci-Fi Hairstyling
Best Prosthetic Makeup
Best Period or Fantasy/Sci-Fi Makeup (Non-Prosthetic)
Best Production Design for Narrative Period or Fantasy Program
Best Sound Editing (One Hour)
Best Sound Mixing (One Hour)
Best Stunt Performance
Best Special Visual Effects
Do YOU think “Shōgun” will win at least 13 Emmys this year and break the record for a drama series currently held by “Game of Thrones”? If it beats or surpasses 13 wins, it will tie (or surpass) the overall record-holder “John Adams,” the HBO limited series starring Paul Giamatti from 2008.
