The Senate races for Republicans this year provide an easy path to reclaiming the majority once again. Almost all the seats they are defending are deemed safe, but there are a handful of pickup opportunities, including Montana.
However, RealClearPolling has seven states in toss-up territory. With West Virginia deemed a noncompetitive plus win for Republicans, they only need one more victory to get 51 votes. Montana is the only other state where a Republican even leads in the polling averages.
Navy Seal veteran and business owner Tim Sheehy, 38, is challenging Senator Jon Tester (D-Mont), who has won three senate elections in the conservative-leaning Big Sky state, but now has his back against the wall for reelection. The Tester campaign has a massive war chest, and its attempt to paint Sheehy as an outsider compared to the generational Montanan incumbent senator is not working. (READ MORE: Larry Hogan Will Help Republicans Take Back the Senate
The Republican Party of Montana has demonstrated remarkable unity, clearing the primary field for Tim Sheehy, a young and charismatic candidate.
The Real Clear Politics polling average shows Sheehy ahead of Tester by 4.4 points. Of the two most recent polls surveyed between June 29th and August 12th, Sheehy is pulling away with a + 5 margin in the most up-to-date Remington poll and + 6 in a poll conducted by KULR-TV.
Senator Tester is taking an unusual position by not endorsing his party’s nominee, Kamala Harris, and was not attending the DNC Convention in Chicago. Tester’s political evasiveness, which is surprising given his past actions, is stunning. He was the second U.S. Senator to call for Biden to drop out of the presidential race, and Harris’s rise to national politics is often attributed to him. As the former Chairman of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, Tester recruited Harris and thought she ran a “powerful campaign.”
The Harris/Walz campaign has no plan to campaign in the Treasure State this fall, which leaves Jon Tester to campaign for himself as he is now the only statewide incumbent Democrat running for reelection. Trump beat Biden among Montana voters by 16 points in 2020, and Kamala Harris may be more unpopular among Montanans.
Republican Senatorial Chairman Steve Daines, Montana’s other senator, believes Kamala Harris’s radical ideology will help rally voters to Sheehy’s campaign in the fall. “When we heard that Kamala was going to be the replacement, we said, ‘That’s good for Tim Sheehy,'” said Daines to the Free Beacon. “As Kamala Harris will continue to be defined by who she really is, versus this makeover that’s being attempted at the moment, the American people will see that she is the most liberal of all 100 senators.”
The Republican Party of Montana has demonstrated remarkable unity, clearing the primary field for Tim Sheehy, a young and charismatic candidate. His star prowess was on full display at the Republican Convention in Milwaukee this year. By aligning himself with Trump and running a focused campaign on the economy, immigration, and housing affordability, Sheehy has further strengthened the conservative base.
While Montana Republicans have historically dominated federal offices, a potential shift in the political landscape is on the horizon. Democrats once dominated statewide offices, but they are now scarce and have the lowest number of state legislative seats in over 50 years. (READ MORE from Alex Adkins: In Defense of Our Defense: Senator Wicker’s Plan)
Helena Capitol columnist George Ochenski concludes that Democrats like Tester are out of touch with their attacks against Republicans like Tim Sheehy. “The Democrat strategists have been off base for quite a long time now, and now there’s only one Demo statewide seat left, and that’s Jon Tester,” says Ochenski. “And he’s scared. He’s terrified.”
Despite Montana’s current trajectory of ousting Tester in favor of Sheehy, it is equally disappointing that a conservative toss-up state like Arizona chose Kari Lake as the Republican nominee. Lake is an election denier who lost a gubernatorial election and is on track to lose a winnable senate race to liberal Democrat Ruben Gallego.
The path to a Republican Senate majority is possible, but winning is more challenging when Republicans prioritize vanity campaigns over beating Democrats. The NRSC has difficulty choosing which senate races are still salvageable to win and finance those candidates. The good news is that Montana is one less state to worry about.
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