The ELO system formula in chess has a unique property: inflation. This means that with more games played, the total average rating of players increases over time. That is a fact, deeply embedded in the rating calculation FIDE uses.
However, what we see today is actual rating deflation of the top players in the world. In July 2017 there were six players over 2800 (Carlsen at 2822, Kramnik 2812, Wesley So 2810, Levon Aronian 2809, Caruana 2807, and Mamedyarov 2800). The same month the top 10 average was 2781, while there were 47 players above 2700 ELO!
Looking at the 2700chess.com live rating list today, there are two players over 2800 (Carlsen, whose rating is 2832 i.e. higher than July 2017, and Nakamura 2802), the top 10 average is 2776, and there are only 31 players above 2700!
The reasons for rating deflation
One of the major reasons for rating deflation is changes in the rating floors of FIDE. Rating floor was 1800 before 2001, then it was decreased to 1600, 1400, 1200, and finally 1000 in August 2012. While this was recently fixed (and will probably get another fix soon), there is a 10 year inherit problem of players who started with low rating and are scraping points from seasoned players with every draw and decisive game.
Another issue is actually a positive news for chess. A huge influx of youngsters with very low ELO, yet much higher skill. Over time, this new generation is propagating the lower rating through the system, while many of the old stars are fading. Thus, the rate of players falling below 2700 ELO is higher than the rate of repopulating the club.
There are other reasons, ranging from global political instability to local federation issues, from better coaching practices to higher access to chess engines. All this combined forms a thread of deflation in the 2700 club. Yet, as the popular song goes, “always walk on the bright side of life”: the rating deflation makes the 2700 list even more prestigious place to be!
Make sure to check out often the fantastic 2700chess.com website, not only for their tracking of the 2700 club, but also the top women list, the junior top 20 list, and more
