(NEXSTAR) — Could Texas be gearing up to be a swing state? A poll released this week by the University of Houston and Texas Southern University shows that while Pres. Joe Biden didn't perform well in the Lone Star State, Vice President Kamala Harris is more popular than expected.
The poll suggests that while former Pres. Donald Trump is still leading in Texas, his lead is much narrower against Harris than Biden.
While 49.5% of likely Texas voters said they'd be voting for Trump, the percentage who say they'll vote for Harris has risen to 44.6%, a 4.3-point increase since Biden was the nominee in June.
Among Texas women and Texas Black voters, Harris leads by 50% and 77%, respectively. Meanwhile, likely Latino voters in Texas are almost evenly split: 47% say they'd vote for Trump, while 46% favored Harris.
Trump solidly holds his lead with white voters (57%) and men (56%), according to the survey.
“Harris has made considerable headway among voters both in Texas and nationally in the short time since she entered the race last month,” said Renée Cross, researcher and senior executive director of UH's Hobby School. “That’s particularly true among younger voters, with 55% of Gen Z voters saying they will support her, compared to just 39% who backed Biden, but she also has gained among women and independent voters.”
While these numbers may be encouraging for Texas Democrats, the party still faces tough battles electing Democrats in the state.
The last time Texans voted to elect a Democrat for president was in 1976 when Jimmy Carter earned over 100,000 more votes than Republican incumbent Gerald Ford. Despite this fact, Bill Clinton was pretty popular in the state, with both George Bush Sr. and Bob Dole winning the state in 1992 and 1996 by slim margins, per Texas Secretary of State voting data.
In 2020, Trump won Texas by over 600,000 votes. Based on voting data, 2020 voter turnout in Texas was pretty high, with both candidates receiving over 5 million votes each.
When it comes to state elections, Democrats have also had a hard time electing Democratic leaders.
Texas' last Democratic governor was Gov. Ann Richards, who served from 1991 to 1995. Since Richards lost her election to former Pres. George W. Bush, the governor's seat has been occupied by only three men, all Republicans.
Additionally, the last elected Democratic senator in Texas was Lloyd M. Bentsen Jr. in 1971. Republican Sens. John Cornyn and Ted Cruz have held onto their senatorial seats since the beginning of their terms in 2002 and 2013, respectively.
Despite all these hurdles, there's evidence to suggest Texas is less red than previously thought. Factoring in potentially discriminatory redistricting to favor Republicans and various voting access barriers for minorities and low-income individuals, the Texas Democratic electorate has faced some difficulties that can't be combated by simply turning out to vote.
In 2020, a group of political scientists analyzed all 50 states to determine which states are the most difficult to vote in — and Texas was found to have the most restrictive voting laws in the country.
“Texas maintains an in-person voter registration deadline 30 days prior to Election Day, has reduced the number of polling stations in some parts of the state by more than 50% and has the most restrictive pre-registration law in the country, according to the analysis,” said researchers.
Though some lawmakers and advocates continue to work against potentially discriminatory legislation, many Democrats in the state currently feel hopeful that Texas' red reputation may soon start to look a little more purple, or even just a little maroon.
With fewer than 75 days until Election Day, the deadline for Texas voters to register is quickly approaching. Lone Star State residents still have until Monday, Oct. 7 to register to vote in Texas.
