Analysts are constantly talking about how the next series is important or a big test. How can that be true of all of them?
At the start of nearly every series the Royals have played this season, if you tune into the TV or radio broadcasts you almost certainly heard someone say, “This is an important series for the Royals!” Similarly, Jacob Milham and I have regularly discussed every series on the Royals Rundown podcast as either a vital series, an important test, or some other synonymous descriptor to the point that we intentionally tried to move away from that framing in recent podcast episodes.
The big question though, is how can this be true? Are analysts just prone to over-hyping things? Well, a little, but there’s some factuality to these statements as well. Let’s go over just the series since the All-Star Break.
Chicago White Sox - Important because it was a bad team right out of the break and you want to get back to winning
Arizona Diamondbacks - Important because the Diamondbacks had been a mediocre team to that point and you want to get some more wins in at home.
Chicago Cubs - Same as Diamondbacks, but they’d lost two of three, so it was even more important.
White Sox again - Now the Royals had lost four out of five, and they needed to rack up more wins against weak competition
Detroit Tigers - Important because they’re a division rival who could catch the Royals if they went on a real hot streak. But if you didn’t believe that, then it was important because beating up on bad teams helps bank wins that will be necessary to reach the post-season.
Boston Red Sox - The Royals primary competition for the third Wild Card spot.
St. Louis Cardinals - Needed to bank wins after losing to the Red Sox
Minnesota Twins - The team ahead of the Royals in the division and the Wild Card.
Cincinnati Reds - Needed to prove the post-All Star Break Royals could beat someone other than the Tigers and White Sox
Los Angeles Angels - Time to rack up more wins against a bad team before a tough stretch
Philadelphia Phillies - First series of a tough stretch, a good start would be important, and it’s an opportunity to continue making up ground on the Guardians before going to Cleveland for four.
Yeah, some of those reasons seem less of a big deal than others, but that also brings us to the overarching reason analysts, bloggers, writers, and talking heads are all talking how important every Royals series has been this year.
The reward for winning games is the necessity to win more games.
The 2023 Royals were long done playing important games by this point of the season. They had already lost so many that it simply didn’t matter how many more they won, it wasn’t realistically going to bring them into competition for a playoff spot. How they won or lost was important for determining who should be back in 2024 and in what roles, but whether they won or lost didn’t matter at all.
The simple truth of the matter is that the 2024 Royals have won a lot of games. And when you win a lot of games, the next games matter. Every test that is passed - or at least insufficiently failed - means you get another, more important, test until you either fail enough tests to be eliminated from post-season competition or you win it all. An argument could be made that clinching a playoff berth removes the importance from most series until the playoffs begin, but you don’t want to go into the post-season as a cold team, either.
So, yes, the Royals have played almost exclusively important series, this season. And given the number of tests they have passed, they are nearly guaranteed to play important series for the remainder of the season.
And, increasingly probably, beyond.
I have frequently referenced a FanPost by Suff76 throughout the season that lays out a narrow path to 90 wins. I really liked the way he laid everything out and I think it’s been a valuable resource when adding context to rough patches the Royals have endured, such as the month of June, their only losing month.
With the Royals entering another brutal stretch of play last night with the beginning of the Phillies series, I thought it might be fun to do my own version, but in this case, I will estimate what I expect the Royals to do for the remainder of the year and then see if that seems like enough wins to make the playoffs.
Phillies: 1-2
at Guardians: 2-2
at Astros: 1-3
Guardians: 2-1
Twins: 1-2
at Yankees: 1-2
at Pirates: 2-1
Tigers: 3-0
Giants: 2-1
@ Nationals: 2-1
@ Atlanta: 2-1
If my predictions are correct, the Royals would go 19-16 for the remainder of the season. They would finish with 90 wins. The Red Sox are currently the closest to overtaking the Royals, but are only on pace for 86 wins. 90 wins would almost definitely get the job done.
Of course, taking the third Wild Card spot would be sweet, but securing the number one spot or the division crown would be terrific as well. All that would take is adding a win or two to their records against the Guardians and Twins from my predictions and seeing those teams continue to play the way they have. The Guardians are pacing for 93 wins but have gone 15-17 since the break. The Twins are pacing for 91 wins, same as the Royals, and have gone 17-14 since the break. The Royals have gone 19-11; the best record in the AL over that stretch.
Catching the Twins seems likely to be significantly more difficult than catching the Guardians, but it can be done if both teams continue on their post-ASB trajectories.
On the other end of the spectrum, the Royals could mostly follow these predictions but get swept by the Yankees and Astros - something that has only happened to them once this season - and still win 88 games while going 17-18 over their last 35. That would give them a one-game cushion as long as the Red Sox don’t play above their current pace.
The Red Sox, by the way, are 14-17 since the All-Star Break - including plenty of losses to some not-good teams In the Rockies and Rangers, lest you think the quality of their opponents is the biggest factor. I wouldn’t go so far as to say I’d expect them to lose more than they win the rest of the season, but predicting them to play higher than their season pace seems at least as unlikely.
Or, to put it another way, the Royals have passed so many tests to this point in the season that it seems increasingly unlikely they could fail enough of the remainder to miss the postseason entirely. And that’s pretty cool.
