Jalen Hurts’ passing yards over/under for the 2024 season is 3,595.5 at BetMGM, which seems low considering the Philadelphia Eagles quarterback has thrown for more than 3,700 yards each of the last two seasons.
The logic is easy to follow, though.
Hurts will be playing for his third different offensive coordinator in as many seasons, and the Eagles just invested a decent chunk of change in star running Saquon Barkley. There’s enough reason to believe he could see a decline in production.
Now, let me give you the reason he won’t.
In five years as an offensive coordinator for the Dallas Cowboys and Los Angeles Chargers, Kellen Moore’s quarterbacks have thrown for 4,902 yards, 4,488 yards, 4,871 yards, 3,911 yards and 4,263 yards. Those stats include backup quarterbacks replacing injured starters.
Hurts may not be the natural passer Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert is, but he doesn’t need to be to eclipse this number. With the weapons he has to throw the ball to, he’ll easily hit this over as long as he stays healthy.
Now let’s get to a few other passing props I like for the 2024 season.
Lines via BetMGM
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This offense in Atlanta won’t be like the sometimes explosive one we became used to watching Cousins lead in Minnesota. While the Falcons do have the potential to be explosive, they’ll likely lean on the run game and Bijan Robinson more than anything else. Cousins won’t hit this over because he won’t have to. Besides, we have no idea how he’ll look coming off a serious injury.
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I don’t have many expectations for the Jaguars this year — one way or another. This team inspires literally no thoughts from me. But when I saw this number for Lawrence it seemed like an easy over to take. He hasn’t thrown for fewer than 4,000 yards since his rookie season.
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Another line that really just comes down to injury, Murray will hit this over if he’s on the field. That is a little tougher to trust with this player, as he hasn’t played more than 14 games since 2020. But his 224-yards per game pace upon returning last season would’ve put him over this number in a full year.
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A part of me believes Watson will magically morph back into the player he was in Houston at some point, but the sample size of games played in Cleveland is now big enough to say that probably won’t happen. His pace of the last two seasons in Cleveland would’ve put him well under this number even if he didn’t get hurt. Plus, Nick Chubb is back.
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I still believe in Young. I don’t believe in the Panthers. Though they did upgrade their receiving corps, I have a hard time seeing Young make the jump from 11 touchdowns as a rookie to more than 18 in a single season. This is the year he gets comfortable playing in an actual NFL offense. Next year is when we’ll likely see it pay off on the stat sheet.
